VanEck 2026 Outlook: Limited potential downside for BTC in this cycle, 2026 is more likely to be a year of consolidation

On January 3rd, VanEck Digital Asset Chief Matthew Sigel stated in the 2026 Outlook that digital assets are showing complex but positive signals at the start of 2026. Bitcoin declined about 80% in the last cycle, but its actual volatility has since decreased by nearly half, implying that the current decline could be reduced to around 40%. The market has currently digested approximately 35% of the decline. Meanwhile, the four-year cycle pattern in Bitcoin’s history (often peaking after the U.S. election window) remains valid after the high point in early October 2025. This pattern suggests that 2026 is more likely to be a year of consolidation rather than a sharp rise or crash. In 2026, global liquidity is mixed—interest rate cut expectations provide support, but U.S. liquidity has slightly tightened due to the collision between AI-driven capital expenditure boom and fragile financing markets, leading to wider credit spreads. Leverage in the crypto ecosystem has been reset after multiple washouts. On-chain activity remains weak but shows signs of improvement. Matthew Sigel indicated that, in this context, it is advisable to establish a disciplined Bitcoin allocation of 1% to 3% through dollar-cost averaging, increasing holdings during leverage liquidations, and reducing during overheated market speculation.