Japan's TOPIX index has shown interesting dividend yield progression over the past decade. Starting at 1.46% in 2015, the yield climbed to 2.04% by 2019, dipped during the pandemic years, then recovered to around 2.3% in 2022-2023 before settling at 2.18% currently. The trend suggests the market may be fairly valued on a dividend basis—that's the bullish take anyway. But here's the catch: this entire thesis hinges on yen weakness persisting. A stronger yen would reshape the valuation picture entirely, making Japanese equities less attractive for international investors and potentially compressing yields further. So while the numbers look reasonable at face value, the currency bet underneath is massive. Until we see more stability in JPY movements, calling the market fairly priced feels premature.