XRP rebounds against the trend: rises nearly 2% in one day, is this a trend reversal or a continuation of the decline?

As we enter the final few trading days of 2025, the cryptocurrency market experiences fluctuations amid the generally subdued year-end sentiment. However, XRP has shown a significant countertrend rebound on December 29 after consecutive declines. According to the latest real-time data on the Gate platform, XRP is currently trading at $1.909, up strongly by +1.86% over the past 24 hours, making it one of the standout assets of the day.

This rally comes after a period of deep correction. Although a short-term rebound is underway, from a medium- to long-term perspective, XRP remains in a notable downtrend: its nearly 7-day decline is -1.34%, and over the past 30 days, it has sharply fallen by -14.02%. Looking at a longer timeframe, XRP’s performance over the past 180 days and one year is -13.78% and -11.82%, respectively, with prices still well below the approximately $3.65 all-time high set in July of this year.

The table below summarizes key performance data of XRP over different periods, revealing a complex pattern of short-term rebound amid medium- to long-term weakness:

Market Dynamics Analysis: The Bull-Bear Battle Behind the Rebound

The notable 24-hour surge can mainly be attributed to the resonance of several factors:

1. Oversold Technical Repair: After experiencing continuous declines over several months, especially a drop of over 14% within a month, the market has accumulated a strong oversold rebound demand. The current price has touched a critical long-cycle support zone, attracting short-term traders and bottom-fishing funds.
2. Marginal Improvement in Market Sentiment: Despite overall quiet trading at year-end, some positive market rumors and expectations for macro policies in the new year have provided a breather for risk assets. XRP, as a highly volatile asset, is particularly sensitive to changes in market sentiment.
3. Capital Rotation Effect: As leading assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum have recently been consolidating sideways, some funds are seeking short-term oversold and resilient targets for speculation, with XRP becoming a potential choice.

However, it is important to recognize that a single-day rally has not reversed the medium- to long-term technical disadvantages. According to historical data from the Gate platform, XRP’s total market capitalization is currently about $115.573 billion, maintaining a top five position in the global cryptocurrency market cap, but it has significantly shrunk from its peak earlier this year.

Technical Outlook: Key Resistance and Downside Risks

From a purely technical analysis perspective, this rebound faces severe tests.

• Resistance levels:
  • Primary resistance zone $2.07 - $2.25: This area includes multiple trading clusters from previous declines and the possible location of the 50-day moving average. A breakout above this zone would be the first step toward alleviating recent extreme bearish sentiment.
  • Strong resistance at $2.64 and $3.00: Corresponding to mid-year highs and important psychological round numbers. Only with sustained volume breakthroughs above $2.25 and stabilization can a potential trend reversal be discussed.
• Downside risks remain:
  • Core support at $1.80 - $1.85: The recent rebound originated from this zone. It will be a key point to observe whether the rebound can sustain; a further breakdown would indicate that the bears still hold the upper hand.
  • Longer-term support at $1.60 - $1.25: If the overall market weakens further, prices could test important lows for the year or even longer-term bottoms. Based on current levels, the potential downside remains significant.

Investment Strategy Insights

For investors trading XRP on the Gate platform, the current environment requires more meticulous strategies:

• For short-term traders: Focus on whether the rebound can sustain. The first key point is whether it can effectively break through and hold above $2.00 psychologically. Set clear stop-loss levels, such as below recent lows of $1.85, to guard against a quick reversal if the rebound fails.
• For medium- to long-term investors: The 30-day and 180-day periods both show double-digit declines, clearly indicating the trend has not yet reversed. Before a key resistance level is convincingly broken, avoid assuming a bottom based on a single day’s large gain. A more prudent approach is to wait for clearer reversal signals or to accumulate gradually at deeper value zones.

Potential turning points may come from several factors: breakthrough in global cryptocurrency regulatory frameworks, large-scale institutional adoption of XRP in cross-border payments and other core applications, or persistent signals of on-chain large-volume accumulation.

FAQ (Frequently Asked Questions)

Q: Why did XRP rise today?

A: Mainly due to a technical rebound after short-term oversold conditions. After a decline of over 14% within a month, the market attracted buy orders near key support levels. Additionally, year-end marginal improvement in market sentiment and capital rotation effects contributed.

Q: Does this rally mean XRP has bottomed?

A: A single-day increase cannot be used as the basis for judging a market bottom. Confirming a trend reversal requires sustained breakthroughs of key resistance levels (such as $2.25) with effective volume expansion. Currently, medium- to long-term trend indicators still show a weak market.

Q: What might XRP do next?

A: The short-term trend depends on whether it can hold support around $1.85 and challenge the resistance zone of $2.07-2.25. Successful breakout could open further rebound space; failure to break through resistance may lead to retesting previous lows.

Q: Is now a good time to buy XRP?

A: It depends on your investment style and risk tolerance. Short-term traders can consider playing the rebound with stop-loss orders; medium- to long-term investors should wait for more reliable trend reversal signals or more attractive valuation levels. Current medium- to long-term data do not yet provide sufficient bullish support.