XRP Price Prediction: Will it Reach $10 in 2026? Three Key Factors Determine the Trend

2025 is coming to an end, and the cryptocurrency market’s frenzy from last year is now a distant memory. The rally driven by policy expectations has faded, and market sentiment has cooled. In the overall market, XRP’s performance has been relatively stable but lacks significant upward momentum. However, recent discussions about XRP reaching $10 in 2026 have once again become the market’s focus.

There are bold predictions from self-proclaimed individuals with the world’s highest IQ (IQ 276) YoungHoon Kim, as well as optimistic scenario analyses from Alibaba’s Qwen AI model. These voices have brought XRP back into the spotlight.

Market Status: Holiday Trading Remains Quiet, XRP Price Moves Sideways

As the Christmas holiday at the end of 2025 approaches, overall trading volume in the cryptocurrency market has declined, entering a typical low-volatility phase. The market lacks clear catalysts, and prices are mostly trading within technical ranges.

According to Gate data, XRP’s price rose slightly by 2.08% on December 29, reaching $1.913. Although the increase was modest, this performance outpaced the overall crypto market, which gained +0.54% on the same day. Meanwhile, 24-hour trading volume reached 21.7554 million XRP, equivalent to $40.9046 million, and market capitalization rose to $115.815 billion.

Key Support: Institutional Funds Inflow and Exchange Supply Tightening

XRP’s ability to hold at current levels is closely related to two structural changes. First, the ongoing inflow of funds into spot XRP ETFs. Since their launch, these ETFs have absorbed approximately $1.14 billion, equivalent to about 750 million XRP tokens, directly reducing the circulating supply on exchanges. Second, exchange supply is tightening. As institutions accumulate assets through regulated ETFs and large holders transfer tokens to self-custody, the tradable inventory on exchanges is decreasing.

On-chain data shows that exchange reserves of XRP have fallen to about 1.5 billion tokens, a significant contraction from earlier levels. This supply tightening means that even moderate buying pressure could push prices higher.

Latest Price Predictions

Optimistic Outlook: Tenfold Prospects from High-IQ Holders and AI Models

The optimistic prediction that XRP will reach $10 is not unfounded. Recently, YoungHoon Kim, claiming to have the world’s highest IQ (IQ 276), predicted that XRP will outperform gold and silver in 2026. Although silver rose by 167.70% in 2025 while XRP declined by 11.69% during the same period, Kim believes this contrast sets the stage for XRP’s strong performance in 2026. Meanwhile, Alibaba’s Qwen AI model also provides an optimistic scenario in its forecast. The model suggests that under favorable conditions, XRP’s price could climb to $10.

This prediction is based on several key catalysts: billions of dollars in institutional funds attracted by spot XRP ETFs, Ripple’s significant progress in cross-border payment collaborations, and clearer regulatory policies that eliminate market uncertainty.

Real-World Challenges: The Mathematical Dilemma of Supply and Market Cap

Despite optimistic forecasts, XRP reaching $10 faces real challenges. The most frequently cited concern is its large supply. XRP’s total supply is 100 billion tokens, with about 59.9 billion in circulation. At $10, its market cap would approach $1 trillion. This figure would surpass many traditional financial giants, leading critics to argue that such a target is logically difficult to achieve.

From a technical perspective, XRP lost the critical $2 support level in December, which has now turned into resistance. Analysts note that, due to current momentum being bearish, XRP might first fall to around $1.60 before buyers return in force.

Core Catalysts: The Threefold Drivers That Will Decide XRP’s Breakthrough

Whether XRP can break through in 2026 depends on the actual progress of several core catalysts. Institutional adoption and ETF fund flows are primary factors. Currently, ETF holdings account for 12.8% of XRP’s circulating supply, creating structural demand. Adoption in cross-border payments is a fundamental support for XRP. RippleNet has established partnerships with hundreds of financial institutions worldwide. If XRP truly becomes the mainstream bridge currency for global cross-border payments, its valuation logic will fundamentally change. Regulatory clarity is also crucial for eliminating market uncertainty. A clearer regulatory framework will not only give institutional investors confidence to enter compliantly but also lay a legal foundation for XRP’s long-term development.

Technical Outlook: Short-Term Consolidation and Long-Term Breakthrough Possibilities

From a short-term technical perspective, XRP is at a critical turning point. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 61, indicating potential for either an upward breakout or a downward breakdown. Gate’s analysis suggests that if the overall market weakens, XRP could fall back to the support zone around $1.77; if this level holds, a short-term rebound toward $1.96 is possible. In the long term, XRP has been consolidating for months, repeatedly forming bullish flag patterns, but has yet to achieve a decisive breakout. Market activity is expected to remain slow until the end of the year, with low likelihood of significant price swings in the short term.

Market predictions that XRP will reach $10 in 2026 remain divided. Optimists like YoungHoon Kim and Qwen AI focus on institutional funds, supply contraction, and adoption prospects; while cautious observers keep a close eye on the enormous supply and the practical difficulties of reaching such a market cap. Regardless of the viewpoints, a consensus is forming: XRP’s future price will not be determined by a single prediction or opinion but by the combined effects of three factors—spot ETF fund flows, RippleNet’s actual adoption progress, and the clarity of global regulatory environments. On platforms like Gate, investors can track XRP’s price movements and market dynamics in real-time, providing data support for their investment decisions. After all, in the crypto market, ultimately, it’s not predictions that matter, but real buying and selling, and genuine adoption.