#预测市场 Looking at Kalshi's data, Gemini's share has surged from 30% at the beginning of the year to 86% now, and this shift is worth pondering. The $14 million trading volume indicates that market consensus on this issue is rapidly coalescing rather than being scattered bets.

The initial landscape was led by OpenAI, but it has now been completely reversed. This change is not only due to iterations in AI performance but more so reflects market participants' adjusted expectations based on the LM Arena settlement standard. ChatGPT's share has fallen from 41% to 8%, with the steepest decline, which may signal two things: first, Gemini's recent version has indeed shown significant improvements in benchmark tests; second, the market's expectation that OpenAI will catch up with subsequent iterations before the end of 2025 is waning.

It is worth noting that the settlement basis is the LM Arena leaderboard. This means that real data will determine the final outcome, and the probabilities in the prediction market essentially represent a collective guess on standardized test results. If the current 86% probability continues or even rises, it may reflect that informed participants have already seen some clues.

The value of such prediction markets lies in aggregating dispersed market knowledge into a single figure, but one should also be cautious that this number itself may be subject to information lag or herd behavior.