Recently, on-chain data for Ethereum has been stirring up again.

At the end of December, a data analyst uncovered an annual ETH observation report, reconstructing a covert game between institutions and retail investors through on-chain footprints. After reading it, I realized how hidden the operations of big funds are behind the seemingly calm surface.

**The key point is this: ETH's current problem is not the selling pressure above, but whether it can hold steady below.** The $2700 level has become a market consensus support line. Once it breaks, the price will fall into a "vacuum zone."

But here's the interesting part—major whales haven't run away. They've just hidden deeper, and the concentration of holdings is actually soaring.

Looking back at the on-chain story, it makes sense. In mid-September, large funds were aggressively building positions at $4500. As a crash was expected in December, they didn't run but instead started "bottom-fishing" around $3100. In June this year, whales holding between $2000 and $2700 on average increased their cost basis to $3100. At the end of November, another wave of funds began building positions between $2700 and $3000, and those holdings have remained unchanged to this day—how optimistic are they about the future?

The distribution of chips is even clearer when you look at it. In the $2700-$3100 range, there are a full 17.9 million ETH lying there, accounting for 22.6% of circulating supply! Plus, 4.45 million ETH at the $3100 level—what does this mean? Almost no selling pressure at $3100, and $2700 is basically a "safety cushion." So, ETH oscillating within this range perfectly aligns with these institutions' "consensus" strategy.

And we should also watch the small moves of the whales. Those holding over 100,000 ETH, from February to April this year, aggressively added to their positions when ETH dropped to $1500, then "dumped and ran" when it rebounded to $3500. In August and October, they played a few more tricks. Recently, as ETH retested $2700, these players started adding again. Playing the "buy low, sell high" game so skillfully, the next trend depends on how these giants manipulate it.

So for retail investors, keep a close eye on the $2700 line—don't miss this opportunity.