Will Ethereum still have a chance in 2026? You’ll understand after reading this data analysis.

Recently, many people have asked me about the future trend of Ethereum. Instead of just talking about it, I’d rather present the recent data I’ve compiled. I focus on fundamental analysis, approaching from four dimensions—on-chain activity, chip distribution, large holder holdings, and market concentration.

First, let's talk about on-chain behavior. Metrics like active addresses, transaction counts, and Gas consumption reflect the real network usage. If these numbers are shrinking, it indicates that the ecosystem’s heat is indeed declining; conversely, if they are growing, there’s still room for expansion.

Next, look at the chip structure. Who is holding the tokens? Retail investors or institutions? Are the holdings concentrated or dispersed? This directly impacts future price volatility. High concentration of holdings makes it easier to reach consensus and push prices up, but also increases risk.

Whale holdings are even more critical. The movements of large holders often lead the market. Are they increasing or decreasing their holdings? What are their cost bases? These factors help us gauge the true market sentiment.

Finally, market concentration. How dispersed is the value within the entire Ethereum ecosystem? Are DeFi, NFTs, and Layer 2 developments balanced? Or is everything focused on a single track?

Combining these four dimensions allows for a relatively objective fundamental assessment. The next section will provide a bottom-up evaluation based on this data.