Lighter is about to launch. In the current market environment, projects in this "hot track" category don't really need excessive interpretation. The number of witch accounts only affects the surface data of trading volume and doesn't change the actual quality of the project.

The opening trading session is often the best window for shorting. Airdrop participants and skeptics are most likely to reach a consensus at this time. Even if market makers enter, they will wait for the selling pressure to weaken before taking the other side, rather than pushing the price up against downward pressure.

Based on this logic, the operation strategy is actually very clear: establish short positions a few hours before the opening, and take profits once the selling pressure subsides; if you don't dare to intervene at the opening, the subsequent rebound over the next few days can provide a second or third opportunity to short.

Broadening the perspective to the entire Perp DEX track, the current scene is exactly the same as the big DEX battle four years ago. After Uniswap pioneered the track, everyone was reinventing the wheel—competing on features, incentives, and communities, running contests, issuing tokens, and chasing valuations. After the TGE, project teams and VCs cash out and leave, while retail investors who buy in are "farming the land."

The market capacity of Perp DEXs is limited; it simply can't accommodate so many new projects. The valuations of established projects will be continuously diluted by newcomers, and this process will continue until 99% of projects exit, leaving only 1-2 truly surviving leaders to realize their value. The final landscape will most likely resemble the current Uniswap.

Aster's current market cap is around $5.5 billion. I don't see how Lighter can catch up in data metrics without the hype of order placement and without long-term support from major exchanges. A valuation of over thirty billion appears clearly inflated in both short-term and long-term perspectives. Rather than calling it a project, it's more like a "long-term shorting investment opportunity" in essence.