2025-12-29 05:22:22

Last Friday, I started shorting and even built a position at the lowest point. Holding this short, I added to the position, thinking the market would definitely fall. As a result, Bitcoin directly broke through 88,200 this morning, giving me a clear answer from the market—my direction was wrong.

At this point, many people would choose to hold on stubbornly, add to their position to average down, and wait for a rebound. But I cut my losses immediately and closed the short, then switched to a long position.

You ask me why I dare to admit my mistake so quickly? Because trading is fundamentally about probabilities. No one can predict with 100% certainty whether prices will go up or down. Whether it's KOL analysis or technical analysis, in the end, it's all about a 50% win rate. Since we can't predict perfectly, the key is not guessing the right direction, but managing this probability.

Some make money, some lose money; the difference is actually very simple—those who profit will adjust their stance in time based on the market, while others stubbornly hold on. If the market has already negated your judgment, why fight against it? That only turns small losses into big ones.

So although I cut my losses in this wave, my overall gains are still fine. Because stop-loss is itself about maximizing probabilistic advantage. This is the true logic of trading.

BTC-0,21%

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ForkThisDAO

· 11h ago

You're right, this is the true awareness of a professional trader. Holding on stubbornly is really a common problem for most people. --- Break through 88200 if you must, there's no need to dwell on it. Cutting losses and switching strategies is the winning mindset. --- I agree with this logic. Probability management is a hundred times more important than prediction accuracy. --- Some people are still waiting for a rebound to average down; they deserve to be liquidated. --- The market chart speaks the truth. Only those who dare to change their minds can survive longer. --- Really, what many people lack is the courage to admit mistakes in time. --- A 50% win rate with good risk control is much more realistic than thinking you can hit every shot every day. --- No rebound came, and the mindset collapsed. I've seen this kind of operation too many times. --- Stop-loss isn't that simple. If you can't get past the psychological barrier, it's all talk. --- Admitting mistakes and switching strategies sounds simple, but how many can actually do it in practice?

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LiquidationAlert

· 11h ago

Cutting losses is easier said than done. Few people can truly turn around in the face of losses; most still hold on stubbornly, waiting for a rebound. In the end, the rebound never comes, and they get trapped even deeper. --- Breaking below 88200 was really satisfying. The switch between bullish and bearish is so straightforward. This is what a trader should look like. --- Probability theory is correct, but the problem is that most people can't even get past the mindset of cutting losses, let alone quickly reversing their position. --- Adding to the position and then immediately cutting losses—what kind of mental strength does that require? If it were me, I would have already failed in my psychological preparation. --- By the way, how much did you lose this time? Or was it a small loss because you cut losses in time? I want to hear the numbers. --- The group of people who stubbornly wait for a rebound are probably still hoping, haha. This is the difference between retail traders and professionals. --- The key step is reversing to go long. Many people, after cutting losses, are afraid to re-enter the market, which means they miss out on the part they could have recovered. --- Small losses turning into big losses happen every day. Very few can survive and come out ahead.

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PaperHandsCriminal

· 11h ago

You're right, listen to the market movements, not your brain. --- I've wanted to say this for a long time; stubbornly holding on is really the most costly habit in trading. --- I also got caught in the 88200 wave, but those who reacted quickly indeed survived. --- As for probability, after trading for so long, finally someone has explained it thoroughly. --- The key is that most people can't do it; smashing the face in the market chart and still wanting to turn the tide. --- I like this logic; small stop-losses are indeed more comfortable than big liquidations. --- Oh, I just saw someone who understands trading logic, rare find. --- Exactly, if the market denies you and you still insist on fighting, that temper is really the root of losing money.

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hodl_therapist

· 11h ago

This guy is right, but I think most people simply can't do it; mindset is still the hardest part. People speak nicely, but when it really comes to a margin call, aren't they just thinking about rebounding and turning the tide? But indeed, stop-loss is smarter than holding on stubbornly. This guy's idea of maximizing the probability of a stop-loss sounds like he's just looking for reasons for his own losses haha. Breaking 88200 was indeed brutal; at that moment, how strong must one's mindset be to decisively turn around? They say knowing is easy, doing is hard; there are many who talk about probabilities, but how many actually stick to discipline? So in the end, trading is still a test of human nature, not technology.

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