2025-12-29 05:21:29

The end-of-year crypto market is indeed a bit quiet. The Christmas rally didn't arrive, and instead, ETFs are experiencing significant outflows, causing many to feel uneasy. Comparing the current situation makes it even more painful: the US stock S&P 500 repeatedly hits new highs, gold approaches $4,500 per ounce, while Bitcoin hovers around $87,000, and the entire crypto index is still oscillating downward.

Someone asked me if this is a turning point for the industry. My answer is straightforward: no. Frankly, this is just a normal performance during high-volatility periods, a short-term ripple amplified by holiday liquidity drying up. To change the long-term trajectory of the industry, these fluctuations are not enough.

Why is volatility so high now? First, the holiday effect. Traders are on vacation, market trading volume drops sharply, and market makers are reducing their positions. Imagine an unmanaged pond—just a small stone can create waves. On December 24, Bitcoin spot ETF net outflows reached $175 million, and Ethereum ETF outflows were $57 million, directly reflecting liquidity tightening.

The second factor is the reallocation of macro funds. The traditional financial markets' "Christmas rebound" at year-end attracted a lot of capital, with risk-averse investors rushing to buy gold, leaving high-risk assets like crypto on the sidelines. But this is just a temporary phenomenon; after the holidays, money will naturally flow back.

More importantly, looking at the underlying logic of the industry. The three core drivers supporting crypto assets are still in place: first, the process of financial onboarding is accelerating, and the transfer of traditional finance to blockchain has become a trend. Second, institutional investor participation is increasing. Additionally, regions with relatively friendly policy environments are expanding their deployment. These changes won't reverse due to two weeks of liquidity stress.

From another perspective, short-term volatility is precisely an opportunity for long-term holders. Historically, every "desperate moment" in the crypto market has been a setup point for subsequent upward phases. The current situation is essentially the market digesting the technical correction after previous gains, not a directional change.

BTC-0,44%

ETH-0,74%

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StablecoinSkeptic

· 9h ago

Oh no, it's the same old story again. I've heard a hundred times that reducing liquidity during holidays will lead to a rebound. But what happened each time? --- On-chain finance, institutional participation... sounds good, but how many real big institutions have actually increased their holdings this year? --- Wait, you say short-term volatility is an opportunity, then why haven't many people dared to buy the dip? Everyone's just watching and waiting. --- I believe it's not a turning point, but don't try to package every decline as a normal correction. Sometimes, nobody wants to buy. --- Liquidity exhaustion? Then why is the S&P 500 still hitting new highs? It shows that money hasn't disappeared; it's just not flowing here. --- Historically, every moment of despair has been a good entry point. It sounds comforting, but can people who are losing money really feel good hearing that? --- As long as the core driving force remains, prices can be supported? I find that logic hard to believe. Actual demand is the real indicator. --- Your theory is the same as what you said at the end of last year. Yet, in the first half of this year, the market still quietly declined. Wake up.

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OnchainDetective

· 9h ago

Haha, I told you, this wave of outflows doesn't scare me at all. It's just a normal operation during holidays. Wait, is gold approaching 4500? Now that's really outrageous. Why is traditional finance so aggressive? Anyway, I'm still holding tight. Desperate moments are the best opportunities to get in. By the way, are institutions really entering the market? It doesn't seem like there are that many news reports. If this correction can really shake out the retail investors, that would be great. Liquidity exhaustion happens every year. Why is it so easy to shake people's confidence this year? Just wait until the holiday ends. I can sleep soundly during these two weeks of sideways movement. Damn, I have to watch those traditional finance guys show off their superiority again. Bitcoin, you better perform well. Ultimately, too many people haven't experienced 2018. They scream at the slightest fluctuation. As long as the underlying logic hasn't changed, everything else is just noise.

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YieldFarmRefugee

· 9h ago

Everyone is on holiday, work is slow, normal pace. Let's see next year. --- Whenever liquidity tightens, all kinds of theories come out; actually, it's just traders sleeping. --- To put it simply, it's still about when the money comes back. Why rush? --- Every time this happens, someone asks if we've reached the top. I just laugh; just look at the historical records to find the answer. --- The underlying logic hasn't changed, so there's nothing to worry about. Anyway, I'm continuing to hold. --- The holiday effect is real; just a small fluctuation can scare out a bunch of papers. I just smile. --- Gold is almost at 4500, and you tell me crypto has no chance? You're overthinking it. --- Outflows just happen; let's wait and see when they return from holiday.

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TokenomicsDetective

· 9h ago

Everyone is bearish, but I actually think this wave of outflows is the best signal for building positions. What does history teach us? Honestly, a drop below 87,000 is truly dangerous; right now, it's actually more comfortable. When the money flows back in January, those who cut their losses will be the ones regretting it. The holiday effect is the most clichéd scythe, and people still fall for it every year. Short-term volatility = celebration for long-term holders, this logic makes sense. But to be honest, the moment when the bottom is truly reached is often so inconspicuous, happening while everyone is scrolling on their phones. The on-chain finance sector indeed hasn't stopped; this is the core.

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