#美联储回购协议计划 The 2026 interest rate path is becoming clearer: rate cuts are almost certain, but opinions differ on the magnitude.

Wall Street giants are surprisingly in agreement. Major institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citibank are betting on rate cuts next year— the reasons are straightforward: inflation is trending downward, employment data is softening, and the new Federal Reserve Chair is dovish. These factors together make a loosening cycle almost inevitable.

CME futures data best illustrates market sentiment. By March next year, the probability of rate cuts has already exceeded that of maintaining current rates, and the results of real-money bets often do not lie.

Of course, there are dissenting voices. Some outliers like Macquarie are still calling for rate hikes, but their voice is too small to create waves in the overall market chorus.

The macro theme is quite clear: liquidity easing has been delayed but will not be absent. Instead of guessing day and night when a turning point will occur, it’s better to proactively align with market consensus. Early positioning and waiting for the trend to confirm is usually the smarter choice.

In this broader context, mainstream assets like $BTC, $ETH, $BNB , and others often react in advance to macro shifts. Grasping the macro rhythm is key to finding certainty in the market.