#2026行情预测

The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a structural reshuffle: 90% of mainstream tokens continue to decline, with market consensus pointing to "substantive value" becoming the sole standard for recovery.

According to the latest data, over the past 90 days, 90% of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap have shown negative returns, and the market has experienced a severe sell-off. The decline ranges from SKY's -1.34% to TON's -43.61%, with mainstream assets like ETH and AAVE also dropping over 20%. This is not just a short-term adjustment but a signal of deeper structural changes in the market.

Current Market Situation: From Broad Decline to Structural Differentiation

· Widespread Decline: Among the top 100 tokens, only 15 have gained more than Bitcoin in the past 90 days, with most performing weakly.
· Leverage Liquidation Impact: The market once shrank by approximately $300 billion due to forced liquidations from leveraged bets, marking one of the most intense volatility periods since summer, with lasting effects on market sentiment.
· "Narrative-Driven" Failing: 2025 was seen as a "policy dividend year," but industry positives did not translate into price increases. Bitcoin's performance this year significantly lagged behind gold and US stocks, indicating a shift in market logic.

Core Causes of the Decline: Three Major Structural Changes

The current market weakness stems from fundamental shifts in capital, assets, and pricing logic.

1. Changes in Marginal Buyers: From Retail to Institutions
· Early market dominated by retail sentiment and "community Beta," leading to high volatility.
· In 2025, the approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF brought institutional funds as marginal buyers. These funds have long decision cycles and pursue risk-adjusted returns, causing structural downward pressure on volatility but making macro indicators like interest rates unusually sensitive.
2. Shift in Asset Focus: From "Crypto Native" to "On-Chain USD"
· Market assets are evolving from simple token narratives to an on-chain dollar system centered on stablecoins and real-world assets (RWA).
· Stablecoins have become the infrastructure of on-chain finance, while RWAs (such as on-chain US Treasuries) provide clear, low-risk yield anchors. Capital is flowing into these assets that generate real cash flows.
3. Retreat of Speculative Capital: Profit-Taking and Risk Reassessment
· Intraday traders, seen as the most "greedy" market group, are withdrawing from high-volatility assets like Bitcoin and semiconductor ETFs to realize profits.
· Many tokens that enjoyed high valuation premiums face huge selling pressure during unlock periods due to lack of real income support.

Future Direction: Screening Framework for Projects with Substantive Value

Market observers warn that most tokens will never return to their previous highs; opportunities belong only to projects that can create real value for holders. Future winners may have the following characteristics:

· Sustainable Revenue Model: The project itself can generate genuine, sustainable cash flows, not relying on token issuance or subsequent financing.
· Typical Example: For instance, EcoYield platform, whose token value is directly linked to income from GPU leasing and renewable energy savings, providing holders with auditable revenue streams.
· Clear Substantive Value Creation: Value should originate from solving real-world problems or improving efficiency, such as enhancing financial settlement efficiency, reducing trust costs, or providing verifiable on-chain yields.
· Transparent Value Distribution Mechanism: Project profits should be shared with token holders through transparent means like smart contracts, aligning interests.

Outlook for 2026

The structural adjustment in the market is expected to continue. Potential catalysts in 2026 may include the implementation of key policies like the US "Clarity Act" and macro liquidity improvements from the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle. However, these factors are more likely to accelerate the market's convergence toward quality assets rather than trigger a new full-blown bubble.

The current market downturn is not the end of the cycle but a filter's activation. It marks the transition of the cryptocurrency market from "narrative hype" to "value verification."

Capital will pursue projects with solid economic models and real income more rationally, while many tokens lacking substantive use cases may be permanently淘汰. For investors, in-depth analysis of project fundamentals and discerning the authenticity and sustainability of their value creation become more important than ever.

Data and Event Notes: The market data cited in this article is as of December 28, 2025. The largest leverage liquidation event in history occurred on October 10, 2025, with a liquidation scale of at least $20 billion.