#美联储利率政策 Non-farm payroll data is quite interesting this time — Citibank's forecast is a decrease of 45,000 jobs in October, with a rebound of 80,000 in November, but they themselves say that this rebound is mostly due to seasonal adjustments, and the real demand is actually weakening. The unemployment rate rising from 4.4% to 4.52% may not seem like a big change, but in the context of the Fed's internal divisions, it becomes a key variable for the market.

This contradictory signal has a very direct impact on follow-trade strategies. If you're following an aggressive trader, they usually bet that inflation will continue to suppress the easing space, and weak non-farm data will put them under pressure; but conservative traders may have already positioned defensively, and can actually profit from market volatility. My advice is to check your follow-trade portfolio allocation while the market is still waiting for the data — don't put all your chips on a single style of trader. During these high-uncertainty periods, this is the true test of diversification wisdom.

Citibank's forecast is basically in line with the Fed's own quarterly projections, which indicates that the officials are psychologically prepared for the rise in unemployment, but the market is still guessing whether this is a recession signal or a policy adjustment signal. We will see the answer next Tuesday, which might once again be a good lesson in stop-loss strategies.