#美联储利率政策 Seeing this non-farm payroll data forecast, I have to be honest: the Federal Reserve is now walking a tightrope, trying to curb inflation on one side and save employment on the other, without letting either fail. Citi's prediction is quite interesting—reducing 45,000 jobs in October, then rebounding by 80,000 in November. It sounds like a "recovery," but economists themselves say it's mostly seasonal adjustments, not a genuine improvement in market demand.

What does this mean for us on the chain? Caution. The market fears conflicting signals the most because they can cause funds to become more volatile. When the data is released without a clear direction, there will be a lot of follow-the-leader and stop-loss triggers causing mutual chaos in the short term. I've seen too many people trade frequently in such uncertainty, only to get repeatedly cut. The unemployment rate might rise to around 4.5%, which is actually negative for the "overheated economy" narrative, but if the employment data exceeds expectations, it could be interpreted as "the Fed might pause rate cuts."

The key is: don't get caught up in market sentiment. During this policy vacuum and conflicting data window, many project teams and big players are creating FOMO. My advice is to hold your position, understand the fundamentals clearly before making moves, and avoid betting on data like non-farm payrolls that can easily change. Longevity is much more important than quick gains.