Exchange inflows surge, why is BTC still rising? The truth about the biggest market in 2025

Folks, have you noticed a "strange" phenomenon? Today, Bitcoin's big bullish candle brought it back to $89,000, but on-chain data shows that in the past 24 hours, over 2,500 BTC are "flowing into" centralized exchanges.

Is the veteran trader's alert instantly triggered? "Price up + exchange balance increase," a textbook-level "sell signal," making you want to quickly liquidate to avoid risk?

Don’t be fooled!

If you really think that way, you might be falling into a market trap, completely missing the master players' killer move.

Because, this is not 2017, nor 2021. The game rules of 2025 have been completely rewritten.

Now, forget all old cycle experiences. Tear apart the surface with data, and you'll see a largest-scale "Great Shift" in crypto history unfolding: on one side, retail panic selling; on the other, institutional whales silently and greedily swallowing.

1. The data that tears apart: retail exodus, institutions busy buying

The harshest truth, told with the most hardcore data:

Retail investors are "voting with their feet" to exit

• In 2025, retail investors net sold about 247,000 BTC, accounting for 1.25% of total Bitcoin supply

• Google searches for "Bitcoin" dropped to a near one-year low, market heat index entered "extreme fear" zone

• On-chain small-value transactions (<$10,000) plummeted 66%, retail active addresses hit a new low since 2020

Meanwhile, institutions are "filling the gaps madly"

• In 2025, net inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $25 billion, 3.2 times the total for 2024

• BlackRock's iBit ETF asset management scale soared from $54.77 billion at the start of the year to $102.09 billion, with a net inflow of $6.63 billion in five months

• Institutional holdings now account for 24% of the entire market, Wall Street has completed a glamorous shift from "testing waters" to "controlling the market"

Understand now? This is not a "sell-off wave," but an epic "turnover"—chips are being transferred massively and irreversibly from short-term emotional holders to long-term institutional portfolios.

Even more heartbreaking, according to memory data, the Federal Reserve canceled the daily $500 billion standing repo limit at the December FOMC meeting. Banks can now borrow from the Fed with unlimited government bond collateral. These flooded liquidity injections did not push Bitcoin higher but instead provided institutions with more ammunition for "left-side positioning"—they are not speculating, but executing asset allocation instructions.

2. Paradigm shift: why is "main force accumulating" the only logic?

Understanding "turnover" allows insight into the root of all current market phenomena.

Old cycle logic (retail-driven): Retail FOMO enters → Price surges → Profit-taking → Price crashes → Repeat

New cycle logic (institution-driven): Institutions continuously buy → Absorb all selling pressure → Price consolidates at high levels, volatility narrows → Price center permanently elevated

That’s why, after Bitcoin hit a new high of $126,000 in 2025, it did not experience the usual "crash correction," but instead hovered at $100,000 for a whole year. Because the funds entering via ETFs behave in a regular, continuous manner, not shifting with short-term fluctuations.

An even more astonishing data point: currently, the amount of Bitcoin absorbed daily by corporate entities and institutional investment tools is over four times the daily output of miners. This is called a "synthetic halving"—a large amount of BTC is permanently locked away by institutions from circulating supply, creating scarcity shocks comparable to Bitcoin's protocol halving event.

Therefore, the meaning of "net inflow" on exchanges has completely changed. It is no longer retail "panic deposits," but:

1. OTC bulk transactions: institutions acquire off-market and transfer to exchange custody

2. Market maker position adjustments: institutions need liquidity for derivatives hedging

3. Growing custody demand: corporate treasuries purchase and require professional custody services

Market dominance has fully shifted.

3. Future outlook: survival and wealth secrets under new rules

When the game rules change, those still using old maps are doomed to lose money in the bull market.

1. Forget the "big surge and crash" speculative dream

Institutionalization means long-term suppression of market volatility. The past 30% intraday swings will become history; future "big moves" are 5-10%. Expecting to get rich in the altcoin season needs to shift to focus on cash flow, real income, and protocol value.

2. Focus on "water flow" rather than "waves"

Instead of obsessing over 15-minute K-line patterns, pay close attention to:

• Weekly ETF fund flow data (especially changes in allocations by BlackRock, Fidelity)

• Corporate balance sheets (MicroStrategy and other companies increasing holdings signals)

• Global macro policies (Federal Reserve balance sheet, Bank of Japan yield curve control)

These are the key to determining the "water level." Remember the golden strategy in memory: 30-40% gold as risk control anchor, the rest allocated to Bitcoin. But the new script of 2025 is—Bitcoin itself is becoming the "gold" in institutional portfolios.

3. Understand the new price narrative

Institutions price based on global asset allocation, anti-inflation, and technological change. Several mainstream institutions' target prices for 2026 are in the $150,000–$250,000 range. Any current correction is viewed by institutions as a window for left-side positioning.

4. Beware of "false safe-haven attributes"

As we analyzed last time, Bitcoin's hedge effect against stock market risk lasts only 1-2 days. In an institution-led market, BTC's correlation with US stocks is stronger. When the S&P 500 sharply corrects, institutions will sell Bitcoin to cover margin calls. So—avoid double-dipping.

4. The ultimate conclusion: the beacon of power transfer

The contradiction between "rising prices" and "exchange net inflows" is not a warning of a downturn, but the clearest signal of the old-to-new cycle power transfer.

It loudly proclaims: the institutional wave via ETFs is unstoppable, and the era of retail-led speculation is gradually fading. The market is not waiting for retail to go into frenzy again, but is solidifying an unprecedented bottom built by Wall Street, sovereign funds, and corporate treasuries.

The choice is in your hands:

• Continue to panic with old-world thinking, and you’ll cut losses at $100,000

• Use the new-world logic, and you can embrace the $250,000 future

This time, when exchange balances increase, it’s not retail fleeing, but institutions repairing their moat. When you see on-chain small transactions shrink, it’s not market death, but chips being solidified.

【Interactive Topic】

In the face of this epic "Great Shift," you will:

A. Panic sell, thinking institutions are诱多

B. Hold firmly, be a friend of time

C. Adjust strategy, increase ETF allocation

D. Switch to altcoins, look for the next 100x coin

Remember:

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Remember, in this market, cognitive gap equals wealth gap. While you’re still studying KDJ golden cross, institutions are bottom-fishing your chips with Federal Reserve liquidity.

I am the crypto digger, a market dissector who only speaks the truth with data. See you next time! #加密行情预测 $BTC