Recently, the market has been filled with voices of adjustment one after another. But our judgment is somewhat different — rather than seeing this as further downside space, we see it as an opportunity to position, as the bottom is taking shape.

There is a phenomenon in the past two weeks that is worth noting. ETF outflows have continued for more than 10 days, with a cumulative capital outflow exceeding $800 million. At the same time, the premium data from a leading spot platform also shows a persistent negative premium state for over 14 days. According to conventional logic, such a strong capital outflow should push the market to continue bottoming out, with a potential decline of over 10%. But what is the reality? The market has instead stabilized in the past two weeks. Prices have not continued to sink following these pessimistic signals, which indicates what? There is an invisible capital accumulating at low levels, gathering chips. When the market cannot fall further, the next inevitable move is an increase.

Another signal comes from market sentiment. The fear index has already reached a high level. You will notice that many communities have become silent, with discussion levels sharply decreasing. Some people are starting to say there is no hope, while others are even pessimistically calling for lower target prices. At such times, market participation is at its lowest, and confidence is at its weakest. But from another perspective, this is precisely the most clever moment for the big players to shake out weak hands — using extreme negative emotions to push retail investors out, creating a false illusion of "another 30% drop." Being able to manipulate market psychology to this extent indicates that the battle for chips has entered a heated stage. When market sentiment reaches such extremes, it often signals that the bottom is about to be confirmed.

From a time perspective, Bitcoin’s correction cycle has already exceeded half a year. Since the sharp correction in October, two months have passed. In terms of technical correction cycles, the timing is basically in place. From a spatial perspective, starting from the all-time high, the current decline has already approached 30% to 40%. The situation with altcoins is even more extreme, with many dropping 80% to 90%. Such a magnitude generally indicates an overcorrection in most historical cases.

Based on these observations, the current strategic advice is quite clear: stay patient, hold spot, and wait for the recovery of the market. Many people did not position at the lows and are now starting to regret it. But what’s even more regrettable is that once the market starts to move and a big bullish candle appears, these people will ask, "Can I still get in now?" — by then, the cost basis will be completely different.

Regarding spot strategies, the risk in contracts at this stage is actually greater. Spot is the best choice to traverse cycles. Think about those who bought Bitcoin when it was over $20,000, or those who suggested focusing on BNB at around $300, and held through to now — over the years, they have made several times their initial investment. Unfortunately, many people were confused by short-term fluctuations, lacked the discipline to hold on, and ultimately missed out on these gains.