The Fed's interest rate cut script for 2026 is gradually emerging— and the market's response is no longer speculation but real money voting with actual investments.

Just look at the attitudes of major institutions. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley jointly issued a warning: the Fed will cut rates twice in 2026, with a minimum of 50 basis points each time. Citibank is even more aggressive, predicting a 75 basis point cut. This is not empty talk—these institutions are putting their money on the table.

The reasons supporting this expectation are quite solid. Inflation data continues to converge toward the Fed's 2% target, the labor market is showing clear signs of weakening, and political factors such as Powell's term ending in May and a dovish successor taking over make rate cuts almost an inevitable choice. CME's FedWatch tool has already signaled: the probability of a rate cut in March 2026 reaches 47.1%, surpassing the chance of maintaining rates for the first time. The futures market is already pricing in easing expectations.

Of course, there are differing voices. HSBC and Standard Chartered worry that the inflation data might be a "false dip," and Macquarie even predicts a possible reverse rate hike by the end of 2026. But frankly, these warnings are being drowned out by the mainstream consensus wave.

Essentially, when the economy is weak, political needs stimulate, and inflation data barely meets targets, the Fed doesn't have many options. Historical patterns also support this: during election years with weakening economic data, the probability of rate cuts usually exceeds 80%.

The question now is no longer "Will they cut rates," but "How fast and how aggressively will they cut?" Under this expectation, some interest rate-sensitive assets #数字资产市场动态 $ZEC, $SUI, $DOGE, etc. ( are already becoming targets for smart money to deploy early. What's your strategy?