#美联储回购协议计划 $ZEC $SUI $DOGE

Has the 2026 Federal Reserve script already been written? Let’s see what the market says.

The latest signals are quite clear — rate cuts are a certainty, pending official confirmation. The mainstream market expects multiple rate cuts in 2026, with specific cuts ranging between 50-75 basis points. This is not the isolated opinion of a single institution but a signal jointly released by several leading organizations.

The reasons supporting this judgment are actually not complicated. Inflation data is approaching the 2% target, the labor market is beginning to weaken, and signs of economic softening are emerging — these conditions together make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to justify maintaining high interest rates. Plus, with Powell’s term ending in May 2026, the new chair is likely to initiate a new round of easing.

The CME FedWatch Tool has already provided an answer: the probability of a rate cut in March 2026 reaches 47.1%, surpassing the probability of holding rates steady for the first time. The futures market’s real money has already been digesting this expectation in advance.

Of course, there are differing voices. Some institutions worry that inflation data might be a “phantom decline,” and some radicals predict rate hikes by the end of 2026. But honestly, these voices are being drowned out by the mainstream consensus, and the market is already acting accordingly.

The core logic is actually very simple: economic softening + political need for stimulus + inflation barely meeting targets = the Fed can only lower interest rates. Historical patterns also confirm this — during Fed transition years, when economic data is soft, the probability of rate cuts exceeds 80%.

The current issue is not whether the direction is correct, but the pace. Smart money is already positioning itself in rate-sensitive assets. What is your strategy?