#比特币与黄金战争 $ZEC $SUI $DOGE

Federal Reserve Rate Decision 2026: Rate Cuts Have Become a Consensus

Institutions are quietly taking action. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are optimistic about two rate cuts next year (starting at 50 basis points), and Citigroup even explicitly names a 75 basis point reduction as a target. This is not media hype but the direction that top global investment banks are betting on with real money.

Why such confidence? Three fundamental supports:

First, inflation has been tamed. The CPI continues to approach the 2% official target, gradually rendering the Fed's "tightening tools" ineffective. Second, signals of a weakening labor market are becoming more evident, and labor demand is beginning to loosen. Third—and perhaps most crucial—the term of Powell’s tenure ends in May 2026, and the new chair is likely to favor easing, representing a natural overlap of political and economic cycles.

Data from CME FedWatch Tool is the most direct indicator: the probability of a rate cut in March 2026 has reached 47.1%, surpassing the expectation to maintain rates for the first time. This means the futures market is already pricing in expectations of policy easing. Smart money has already sensed the change.

Of course, there are also voices countering this view. HSBC and Standard Chartered warn of potential "fake decline" risks in inflation data, and Macquarie even aggressively predicts a possible rate hike by the end of 2026. But these warnings are being drowned out by the mainstream expectations wave.

The core logic is actually quite simple: with the economy showing signs of fatigue, political needs for stimulus, and inflation data meeting targets, the Fed has limited room for maneuver. Historical patterns also support this judgment—during election years with weakening economic data, the probability of rate cuts exceeds 80%.

For market participants, the current question is not whether rate cuts will come, but how aggressive and how fast they will be. The window for deploying rate-sensitive assets is opening.