As of 2025-12-29 12:00 (UTC+8), SOL is currently trading around $128.5, with a slight intraday increase and low trading volume. The market shows a short-term weak rebound and a medium-term bearish pattern, awaiting a clear direction.

Key Indicator Overview

• Daily Chart: Price below the 20/50/100-day moving averages, with a bearish moving average alignment; MACD shows a death cross, indicating weak momentum; RSI around 46 (neutral to bearish); Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with low volatility.

• 4-Hour Chart: Short-term oversold rebound, MACD shows a golden cross at low levels, with bullish momentum slightly increasing; the middle Bollinger Band at 129.5 and upper band at 130.5 act as resistance, while the lower band at 127.5 provides support.

• Trading Volume: Approximately 670 million USDT over 24 hours, insufficient volume to support a trend breakout.

Key Price Levels (Units: USD)

• Resistance: 130-131 (4h upper band + 20-day moving average) → 133-135 (recent dense trading zone) → 138-140 (50-day moving average).

• Support: 127.5-128 (4h lower band) → 125 (psychological level + key support/resistance) → 120-122 (strong support, previous bottom of oscillation).

Trading Strategy

• Short-term (Intraday): Focus on range trading. If rebound hits resistance at 130-131, consider light short positions with a stop loss at 133, targeting 128-127; if retracement stabilizes at 125, consider light long positions with a stop loss at 123, targeting 129-130.

• Swing Trading: Wait for volume breakout above 131; if volume pushes above 133 and stabilizes, look for a rally to 138-140; if it drops below 123, watch for a move down to 120, or consider cautious short positions.

• Risk Management: Year-end liquidity is low, prone to "pinning" moves; keep single-position exposure below 10%, enforce strict stop losses, and avoid holding heavy overnight positions.

Market Highlights

• Capital Flow: Crypto ETFs continue to outflow, SOL spot market funds are weak, limiting rebound potential.

• Sentiment: Year-end fund repatriation and cautious market sentiment, awaiting new catalysts.