#美联储回购协议计划 ETH's trajectory in 2026 depends not on the ceiling of the rise but on whether the support below can hold steady.

The $2700 level is very critical—this is the current market consensus for a buy-in point. Once broken, the price could fall into a vacuum zone, lacking effective support. But the other signals are even more interesting: large wallet activity data shows that the concentration of holdings is rapidly increasing, indicating that organized funds are quietly positioning themselves, just with a more cautious rhythm.

On-chain data tells the story that the main players have not exited; they are just adjusting their tactics. Every time the price rises, large profit-taking sell-offs appear, reflecting that the current buying power in DeFi, NFTs, and spot ETFs is not yet sufficient to directly absorb these sell pressures.

The real challenge? If the Ethereum ecosystem cannot generate enough economic activity and token consumption, $ETH will have to endure inflationary pressures. This means the ecosystem needs to create a stronger growth narrative, using consensus to lock in liquidity and support value.

For ordinary investors, the current question is not whether to allocate but at which price levels it is more cost-effective. This requires a deeper understanding of the current distribution of holdings and market sentiment.