12.29 Monday Afternoon Market Analysis

In the morning, it rose from around 87,500, surged to near 89,800, showing a strong upward trend. However, during the rally, trading volume did not expand accordingly, and signs of resistance after the short-term rally began to appear.
From the hourly Bollinger Bands, the opening widened into a trumpet shape, with the upper band and middle band diverging upward, and the lower band moving downward. This "upper band rising, lower band falling" pattern often indicates that short-term upward momentum is overextended, and a correction or retracement may be needed.
Although the 5-day MA has turned upward, the 10-day MA and 20-day MA have not kept pace, creating a short-term "moving average disconnect" phenomenon, indicating insufficient support strength. Additionally, during the rally, trading volume significantly shrank compared to earlier declines, showing a divergence of "rising price with decreasing volume," suggesting that bullish traders' enthusiasm is weak, and the rally is driven more by short-term funds rather than trend-following capital.
The MACD indicator shows a bearish divergence above the zero line, with the red bars continuously shortening, indicating that bullish momentum is rapidly weakening. The RSI has risen above 70 into the overbought zone and shows a downward turn signal, significantly increasing short-term correction pressure.
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