#美联储利率政策 Seeing Williams' recent statements, I was reminded of the start of the 2015 rate hike cycle. That year, the Federal Reserve also began tightening under the backdrop of relatively solid employment data and manageable inflation expectations. As everyone knows, the subsequent story was quite tumultuous.

This time, a 25 basis point rate cut essentially reflects the Fed correcting an overly tight stance. Williams was very straightforward—slowing employment and easing inflation are the two main pillars supporting a rate cut. But the key point is that he also said "the next step is still premature," which carries significant weight.

Having navigated this market for many years, I’ve seen too many cases where the Fed's "data dependence" ultimately turns into "policy reversals." The pandemic in 2020 and the rapid rate hikes in 2022 each involved major asset rebalancing. The current situation is somewhat delicate—although inflation has eased, it remains above target; tariffs still need to be digested; the labor market is cooling but not at crisis levels.

This uncertainty, combined with close data monitoring, makes the market increasingly sensitive. Frankly, for those who have experienced multiple cycles, patience is now more valuable than aggressiveness. Williams' cautious stance reflects the Fed's internal realistic assessment of the complex situation, and the data before the January meeting next year will be crucial.

History shows that policy turning points often appear during moments of oscillation between "uncertainty" and "data dependence."