2025-12-29 03:30:23

#数字资产市场动态 I see many traders saying, "This coin will definitely go up, target is so and so," which makes me scratch my head. Honestly, this kind of thinking is deadly.

The crypto market has never been 100% certain. No matter how perfect the technical analysis or how favorable the news, it can only be considered high probability, not a guaranteed certainty. Many people fall into this trap—mistaking high probability for a sure event. And then? Once the trend reverses, their mindset crashes—cutting losses, chasing highs, going all-in—creating a vicious cycle.

Over the years in the crypto world, I've seen too many examples. Major coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum often retrace, let alone smaller coins. Successful traders never say "I'm 100% sure." They say, "Based on this logic, the success rate is approximately X%, and this is how much loss I can tolerate."

So the key is to let go of black-and-white, emotional thinking. Trading is not gambling; it's about managing risk amid uncertainty. Understanding the essence of probability is essential for maintaining a stable mindset.

BTC-0,02%

ETH-0,15%

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DaoResearcher

· 14h ago

According to the risk management model in the white paper, the author's probabilistic thinking framework essentially reiterates the core logic of the Kelly formula—position management = f% × (b/a). However, most retail investors have never even seen this formula and go all-in directly, which is indeed a sign that the governance mechanism has completely failed.

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ForkTrooper

· 14h ago

That's so true. I've seen too many people shout 100% and end up losing everything.

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DoomCanister

· 14h ago

That's right, all those guys around me who were shouting "guaranteed rise" are now eating dirt.

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CounterIndicator

· 14h ago

That's right, I used to be that kind of "100% sure" fool, and I got proven wrong countless times. Now I only dare to talk about probabilities and risk tolerance, and my mindset is much more stable.

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MEVHunterNoLoss

· 14h ago

That's right, I've seen too many people say "this coin is stable" like they're sleepwalking, only to be proven wrong shortly after. A 100% thing simply doesn't exist; anyone who believes it is foolish.

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LiquidityWizard

· 14h ago

theoretically speaking, the 100% confidence thing is just... statistically bankrupt. seen too many traders confuse correlation with causation then wonder why their portfolio got liquidated lol. risk-adjusted thinking or bust fr

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