#美联储利率政策 Seeing a net inflow of $864 million into digital assets this week, maintaining a mild inflow for three consecutive weeks, my feelings are quite complex.

On the surface, the Fed's "hidden QE"—the $40 billion Treasury reserve management purchase program—indeed sends positive signals. But I want to remind everyone not to be blinded by the apparent liquidity improvement. The divergence between market sentiment and capital flows after rate cuts is a warning: a policy shift being mild does not mean the risk has disappeared.

I noticed that Bitcoin has seen an inflow of $27.7 billion this year, far below the $41 billion in the same period last year. What does this indicate? It suggests that even with supportive policies, the market's demand for incremental capital in crypto assets is still declining. Ethereum has performed relatively strongly, but this also reminds us that different assets react very differently under various policy environments.

The key point is, what we should do is not follow the trend and chase inflow data, but:

**First, review your own positions.** An improved policy environment does not mean you should expand your holdings; instead, ask yourself how much of your current allocation is based on bets on policy.

**Second, extend your time horizon.** Looking at the flow changes from 2024 to now, only resilient assets can withstand cyclical tests. A short-term inflow of $8.64 billion cannot change this.

**Third, maintain your safety boundaries.** The "hidden QE" may continue until April 2026. Over such a long cycle, can you ensure your decisions remain rational?

I always believe that prudent asset allocation is not about how accurately you catch the bottom, but whether you can stay steady amid policy changes. This policy environment improvement is an opportunity, but also a test.