#预测市场 After reading this article, I have to be honest: prediction markets sound impressive, but I’ve seen through the risks long ago.

Do you remember the InTrade manipulation in 2012? Someone poured money to push Romney’s price from 41 cents to 49 cents, then quickly ran away. Over the years, I’ve seen too many such tricks—whenever liquidity is low, a few big players can easily distort prices, then the media follows suit with reports, and retail investors follow the "market signals" en masse.

What’s most heartbreaking is the point made in this article: even if manipulation seems to have minimal impact, the creation of public panic itself is harmful. Think about it—once the media starts reporting "foreign capital manipulating election markets," the public begins to doubt, and the trust system collapses. This is exactly the same logic as the market manipulation by whales in the crypto space—it's not about how much you can earn, but how much panic and price distortion you can create.

There are a few warnings worth noting: First, watch for markets where large orders suddenly flood in at high frequency—that’s a sign of manipulation. Second, don’t blindly trust a single information source; compare it with polls, public opinion, and other multidimensional data. Third, markets with poor liquidity are the easiest to manipulate—an old truth.

In essence, prediction markets are still a game of information—whenever participants have unequal information, there’s a risk of being exploited. In an era where AI can fake public opinion, these markets will become new battlegrounds for information warfare. Stay alert, don’t follow the crowd, and ask yourself more "why" questions—that’s the secret to longevity.