#比特币价格走势 Twelve years of five policy cycles, the market has survived each time— but this time, the script seems to be reversing.

After reviewing this recap, there are several data points worth noting. During the 2013 ban, BTC dropped from 1130 to 755, then oscillated between 400-600 for over two years. But after exchanges shut down in 2017, BTC rebounded from 3000 to 19665. The 2021 mining crisis was the most severe, yet it only pulled back to 35000, and by the end of the year, it surged to 68000.

The current issue isn't the policy itself, but the fundamental change in market structure.

In the past, Chinese capital was the main driver of pricing; regulatory crackdowns could overturn the market. Now, prices are supported by Wall Street ETFs, Middle Eastern sovereign funds, and European institutional custody, which cannot be shaken by a single domestic risk warning. You see USDT negative premium as panic selling to convert to fiat, but global holdings haven't collapsed in tandem.

More detailed signals: this time, mentioning stablecoins, RWA, and even banning promotional content indicates that regulation is shifting from the trading side to the promotional side. This may clear out a batch of gray projects and pump-and-dump schemes, which in the long run is a form of washout. Teams with real business operations are inevitably going overseas.

In the short term, there will indeed be emotional shocks and liquidity fluctuations, but from historical nodes, every "bad news" landing often signals a bottom turning point. The key is whether subsequent CEXs will truly restrict domestic IPs and C2C functions—that will be the watershed in implementation.