Lighter project OI fears a 20% drop; $2 billion FDV still attractive

SignatureVerifier · 2025-12-29T02:40:08+00:00

【Crypto World】Lighter's recent token fluctuations are considered to be mostly digested, but it may face significant pressure in the future. Some analysts believe that open interest (OI) could drop by more than 20%, and trading volume may decline by over 30%.Honestly, the current market environment is indeed not very optimistic. It's not a bull market rhythm; rather, it's a sideways and weak situation that looks a bit uncomfortable.However, from a valuation perspective, things may not be that hopeless. If Lighter's fully diluted valuation (FDV) can stay around $2 billion, then this price is still worth paying attention to. After all, in the current market environment, opportunities to find projects with such potential are not many.

SignatureVerifier

2025-12-29 02:40:08

【币界】Lighter最近的代币波动算是基本消化了，但后续可能会面临不少压力。有分析认为，未平仓量（OI）最多会跌去20%以上，交易量也有可能下滑30%以上。

坦白说，现在这个行情环境确实不太乐观。不是什么牛市节奏，反而是那种横盘偏弱的局面，看起来有点难受。

不过从估值角度看，事情可能没那么绝望。如果Lighter的完全稀释估值（FDV）能稳在20亿美元左右，这个价格就还值得关注。毕竟在当下这个市场环境里，能找到这样有潜力的项目机会也不多。

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FlashLoanPhantom

· 11h ago

OI drops 20%? It depends on whether it can hold the 2 billion FDV, otherwise it will really be panic. Projects with such prices are indeed rare to find in this market.

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GweiTooHigh

· 11h ago

A 20% drop in OI is nothing; the market is just like this right now. But a 2 billion FDV is still somewhat acceptable; the key is whether it can hold this price level.

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gas_fee_therapist

· 11h ago

OI drops 20%? This wave indeed looks quite uncomfortable, but a 2 billion FDV is still somewhat interesting. Compared to those sky-high projects, it's at least more rational. Making quick money through profit isn't possible anymore, but this price could be a good entry point. Speaking of which, the most annoying thing about sideways trading is this kind of situation—no direction, no opportunity. If there are still people paying attention to Lighter now, it clearly shows some optimism. I just want to wait and see. A 2 billion valuation isn't much different from the funding price, right? Early investors should still be making a profit. Those who bought at the recent high during this downturn might be a bit unfortunate. But on the other hand, if the market environment continues like this, a 30% drop in OI wouldn't be surprising. Now, is it better to buy and wait for a rebound or to accept the loss? That's the real question.

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SandwichDetector

· 11h ago

It's been consolidating for so long, a 20% drop in Lighter isn't surprising. The question is whether it can hold steady at 2 billion FDV. A 50% reduction in OI is nothing, anyway it hasn't truly broken the valuation bottom line. Honestly, the market is like this now. Projects with bottomed valuations are actually worth watching. Don't be fooled by short-term fluctuations.

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