2026 is regarded as a critical turning point in the global energy landscape. This year not only marks the acceleration of the energy transition but also the moment when four major contradictions converge and explode—transition sprint, supply and demand imbalance, geopolitical games, and technological breakthroughs—ultimately reshaping the global energy power map.

【Critical Moment of Energy Transition】
According to IEA data, by 2026, renewable energy generation is expected to account for 36%, surpassing coal's 32% for the first time. This is not just a numerical change; it signifies a fundamental shift in the energy structure. In China, new wind and solar installations average 200 million kW annually, and the share of non-fossil fuel power generation approaches 40%, demonstrating the strength of the transition. However, the process is not smooth—traditional energy industries face a dilemma of "supply security or decline," with grid peak regulation, energy storage technology, and cross-provincial long-distance transmission becoming key battlegrounds. The game between old and new energy systems will be highly intense this year.

【Subtle Balance in Oil and Gas Markets】
The crude oil market is also an undeclared war. OPEC+ relies on production cuts to maintain oil prices, but U.S. shale oil producers have already reduced costs below $45 per barrel, with daily output stable at 13.8 million barrels, ready to increase production at any time. IEA estimates that the global crude oil demand increase in 2026 will be only 860,000 barrels per day, reaching a multi-year low. The expectation of oversupply is forming. Europe's carbon tariffs (about $4.2 per barrel) and electric vehicle penetration exceeding 40% are suppressing demand for traditional refined oil products, putting additional pressure on oil-producing countries' revenues. When economic interests are damaged, the risk of geopolitical friction naturally rises.

【Geopolitical Tug-of-War in Natural Gas】
The competition landscape in the LNG market is also being reshaped. Europe and Asia are increasingly vying for U.S. LNG supplies. In 2026, new LNG capacity additions are limited, inventories remain low, and the lingering effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have not fully dissipated, causing ongoing volatility in natural gas prices. Whether Russian pipeline gas can return to the European market and how Asian energy demand rebounds will further tighten an already strained market.

【Technological Revolution and Positioning Race】
The most noteworthy development is the official sprint phase of commercial nuclear fusion. Leading U.S. companies have set 2026 as the year to build fusion plants, while China has clearly targeted 2030 for power generation. Investments and breakthroughs in frontier technologies such as nuclear fusion and solid-state batteries will determine the distribution of future energy power. This technological race leaves no spectators.