Bitcoin's recent trend has indeed been a bit perplexing. Hovering around $87,875, it seems like a drag on market enthusiasm—24-hour trading volume is only $13.75 billion, with activity clearly declining. But from a technical perspective, things are quite complex.

RSI(6) has already surged to 70.7, firmly entering the overbought zone. However, looking back, the MACD shows a golden cross, with bullish and bearish signals conflicting. Market participants are also divided—whale actions are particularly intriguing. On one side, a mysterious address has been sweeping up 118,000 BTC over the past three months; on the other, a whale has shorted over $17 million with 50x leverage in the derivatives market. What are they betting on?

From a macro perspective, the outlook is even more pessimistic. Spot ETF net outflows have exceeded $1.1 billion for six consecutive days, indicating that institutional investors are clearly reducing their holdings. The Fear & Greed Index is only at 29, signaling a "fear" sentiment. The put-call ratio is just 0.265, with smart money's shorts dominating, and top traders are also net sellers.

$88,421 has become a short-term key level—Bitcoin is about 4.5% away from it. Interestingly, although market activity is currently subdued, data from the derivatives market hints at a potential turnaround in January. With a market cap of around $1.75 trillion and market dominance still at 59.2%, Bitcoin as an inflation hedge hasn't fundamentally broken down. Whether it can take off in 2026 depends largely on how the next few weeks perform.