As 2025 approaches the end, the world's richest person has issued a new economic prophecy—predicting that the US economy could achieve double-digit growth in the next 12 to 18 months, and with the addition of AI factors, even triple-digit growth within five years. Once this statement was made, a large number of influential voices from the traditional financial circle to the digital asset community began to share it. After all, for holders and institutions of risk assets like Bitcoin, macroeconomic data is the compass; any major statement can trigger market sensitivities.

But the story isn't that simple. Let's look at what mainstream institutions are saying: the IMF forecasts US GDP growth of about 1.9% in 2025, and 2.0% next year; the Federal Reserve remains more conservative, maintaining a moderate range of 1.7%-2.0% over the long term. Although inflation has eased, it still remains above the 2% target. When compared with Musk's assessment, it's like they are from two parallel worlds.

Now, let's see the punch from reality: at the beginning of the year, institutions and influential figures were generally bullish on Bitcoin, with price expectations between $150,000 and $250,000. But in the fourth quarter, there was a sharp decline, dropping the price back to around $90,000. The gap between expectations and reality is right in front of us.

What does this indicate? The market is undergoing a shift. It is gradually moving from purely story-driven and emotion-driven to fundamentals and data-driven trajectories. The speculative nature is gradually fading, while the investment aspect is beginning to emerge. For ordinary participants, the most important thing is to maintain rational observation and continuous learning—neither blindly follow the predictions of big players nor lose confidence due to short-term declines. The future belongs to those who can stay clear-headed amid volatility.