#数字资产市场动态 $RVV Bank of Japan's policy statement on December 29, can it determine the rhythm of the short-term crypto market?

It really seems to be able to. Let's break down the logic simply.

**If the central bank loosens**—the cost of yen financing remains low, which reduces costs for arbitrage funds. Cheap leverage, once influxed, makes leading assets easier to rebound from declines, trading activity surges, and leveraged longs become eager to jump in.

**If it stays put**—the status quo is maintained, but this is the most awkward scenario. The yen is depreciating, JGB yields are high, and these two contradictions cannot be reconciled. The market repeatedly tests in this uncertainty, with crypto assets fluctuating around liquidity expectations.

**If it tightens**—financing costs rise, arbitrage trades start to cut losses, institutions sell crypto assets to pay debts. Once leveraged positions can't withstand the pressure, chain liquidations become imminent. Deep corrections are hard to avoid.

The key point here: $TAKE $EVAA, the high yields of JGBs are draining global arbitrage funds. The greater the pressure on the yen, the more it pushes up not only financing costs but also the space for cheap leverage in the crypto market. High leverage positions face forced liquidation risks, and any slight disturbance can amplify panic selling and volatility.

This isn't a fundamental issue; it's a psychological expectation problem—once market concerns about Japanese debt spread, crypto asset declines will far exceed what any fundamental data can explain.

Bitcoin's sensitivity to policy signals has been outrageously high these days. Under tightening expectations, support levels are tested, altcoins' declines intensify; under easing expectations, short-term rebounds occur, but long-term remains stuck at the global liquidity ceiling.

During this period, focus on: policy statement wording, JGB yields, yen exchange rate trends, as well as exchange liquidation data and leverage ratios. Connecting these data points is the only way to truly understand the market's real temperament.