#数字资产市场动态 Precious metals frenzy, crypto assets stuck in a stalemate—12.29 Market Analysis

The Christmas holiday rally was indeed hot. Gold, silver, and platinum nearly hit new all-time highs simultaneously, with gold approaching $4,550 per ounce on Friday, marking a year-to-date increase of over 70%. Silver performed even more aggressively, surging over 10% just on Friday, breaking through the $79 per ounce level. Industrial metals like copper and palladium also reached new highs amid strong capital inflows.

In contrast, the crypto market atmosphere this weekend appears much calmer. $BTC and $ETH are mostly consolidating, with little volatility, as both bulls and bears are testing each other. There’s a clear feeling—no upward momentum, and no downward movement either, with the market caught in a vacuum of contest.

**What does the technical analysis say?**

The daily chart of BTC shows a small doji candlestick with a positive close, and the Bollinger Bands are tightening. The price is currently trading below the middle band. On the technical indicators, the KDJ lines have formed a golden cross at high levels but are starting to diverge downward. The MACD lines are moving upward, but the trading volume is noticeably weak. Overall, the bulls and bears are still tugging, with no clear directional signal. In this situation, it’s better to trade within the range, waiting for a breakout to reveal the true trend.

**12.29 Trading Strategy:**

**Bearish Perspective:**
If BTC rebounds to 89,000–89,500, consider opening short positions. Conservative traders can wait until 90,000–90,500 to enter. Place stop-loss around 91,500 for safety. Profit targets are set at key levels: 88,000, 87,500, and 87,000. If the price continues to break downward, look for 86,500–86,000 as next support. If it breaks below, tighten stops to protect profits.

The approach for ETH is similar. Short at the 3,000–3,030 rebound zone, with a safer entry at 3,060–3,090. Defensive stop at 3,130. Targets are 2,950, 2,900, and if it continues to fall, 2,870–2,850 as support. Similar logic applies—be flexible with stops after a breakdown.

**Bullish Perspective:**
Aggressive traders can go long at the retracement level of 86,500–86,800 for BTC. Conservative traders might wait for 85,300–85,700 to enter. Defensive stop at 84,500. The upside targets are a series of resistance levels: breaking through 87,500, 88,000, 88,500, and reaching 89,000. If it breaks above, watch for 89,500 and the 90,000 psychological level.

For ETH, consider going long on dips to 2,860–2,900. Conservative entries are at 2,780–2,820. Stop-loss at 2,730. Upside targets are 2,950–2,980, and if it breaks higher, look toward 3,000–3,030.

**What’s the underlying logic?**

Simply put, the main reason crypto assets are lackluster right now is that precious metals and US stocks are attracting too much capital. Hot money in the market is chasing safe-haven assets like gold and silver, along with sustained inflows into US equities. As a result, the incremental capital flowing into crypto is significantly insufficient. Once international tensions ease and risk sentiment improves, funds will flow back into high-yield crypto markets for speculation. Therefore, during this phase, it’s crucial to pay close attention to geopolitical developments and institutional fund movements, as these are the key factors influencing the subsequent market trend.