#预测市场 Is the prediction market being manipulated? This is actually more outrageous than you think. 😅 If the 2028 election is truly disrupted by AI-generated public opinion, CNN reports market prices every day, retail investors follow suit and buy in, and a single large trader with a big order can flip the entire market...

The key is that markets with poor liquidity are easiest to manipulate. Rhode and Strumpf have long studied this. Do you want to spend money to manipulate mainstream markets? Then just wait for the arbitrage brothers to reverse harvest you. 💀 But here’s the problem—if market information and polls are seriously disconnected, ordinary people can’t tell whether the expectations are real or just played with. Panic, conspiracy theories, trust collapse—one after another.

So the current response plan, frankly, is: media should look at liquidity and only report on markets with good liquidity; platforms need to install monitoring systems to catch abnormal trades; regulatory authorities should treat market manipulation as a political issue to handle. Sounds perfect, right? The problem is, none of these are easy to implement. 😂

Prediction markets are originally a good thing—integrating dispersed information and voting with real money, much more reliable than bad polls. But now, mixed with social media and cable news, it has become a paradise for public opinion manipulation. If you want to make money, just be honest and focus on fundamentals. Don’t expect to extract alpha from these noise.