2025-12-29 01:26:02

Since the last halving in 2016, Bitcoin has followed a remarkable cyclical pattern. In September 2017, a regulatory storm hit, and exchanges collectively went overseas. In December of the same year, Chicago Futures launched BTC contracts, pushing the price to a high of $20,000—followed by a ruthless crash, dropping over 80%, from $20,000 down to just over $2,000.

During the full three-year rebound cycle, the second halving in 2020 became a turning point. Based on an 18-month cycle, Bitcoin reached a historical high of $69,000 in November 2021. The second-highest point 12 months after the halving was also around $64,000, but the absolute top was only reached after 18 months. This pattern was later validated again.

In November 2022, the panic index dropped to 10, and Bitcoin plummeted to $15,500, a decline of 77%. During this extremely pessimistic market moment, it became the hunting ground for right-side allocators. On January 11, 2024, a spot ETF successfully launched on Nasdaq, causing Bitcoin to surge to $39,000 that day. This was followed by the third halving on April 20, 2024.

If the pattern holds—where the 18th month marks the peak—then from April 2024 onward, Bitcoin could potentially reach new highs again around October 2026, even challenging $126,200. Is this pattern merely a coincidence or a deeper market law? It’s worth every trader’s reflection.

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SignatureAnxiety

· 9h ago

Wait, the 18-month cycle is back? The last time I heard this was in 2017, and what happened then... To be honest, this pattern looks appealing, but I still can't fully trust it. After all, history repeats but doesn't copy and paste. Let's just wait and see. Anyway, the halving has already passed. We'll find out in October 2026.

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ILCollector

· 9h ago

I've heard the 18-month cycle explanation too many times. It sounds quite accurate every time, but when it comes to the critical moment, no one can be certain.

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MetaverseMortgage

· 9h ago

I've reviewed this 18-month cycle logic several times, and every time someone brings it up for discussion, but who actually makes money from it? Honestly, it's just armchair quarterbacking; anyone can draw patterns looking backward. The number 126,200... maybe overthinking it, brother. 2026 is still far away; it's better to focus on how to get through next year rather than worry about this now. I don't deny the existence of the halving market, but how many can pinpoint the exact timing? A month ago, they were still calling for a 30,000 bottom, and now they're starting to tell stories again.

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SmartContractPhobia

· 9h ago

I've heard this 18-month cycle argument quite a few times, and every time it sounds pretty impressive haha Whether you believe it or not, I’ve just been losing money going left and right anyway October 2026? Let’s see if I can survive until next year first If this pattern really is that accurate, would anyone really get liquidated? The halving market is real, but claiming it so confidently is a bit uncertain History repeats itself, but not exactly the same, someone always gets proven wrong

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