How likely is a Ukraine ceasefire before Q1 2026 ends? Prediction markets are pricing this scenario at just 25%, and market participants seem skeptical about rapid de-escalation. The consensus view leans heavily toward continued friction—major stakeholders lack strong incentives to pursue immediate peace negotiations. From a risk management perspective, traders watching geopolitical exposure might want to factor in sustained uncertainty as a baseline scenario. The gap between optimistic headlines and market odds is telling; when prediction markets heavily discount something, there's usually substantive reasoning behind the pricing. What's your take on the timeline?