December 29, 2025 BTC Contract Key Levels

The current price is moving within a wide-range oscillation zone confirmed by multiple timeframes. Focus on “buy low at the lower boundary and sell high at the upper boundary” to achieve a long-term probabilistic advantage through strict discipline.

Bull-Bear Threshold: 88,000 USDT (psychological level and recent high-volume trading zone, but not a core opening position).
Resistance levels above (upper boundary of the range and strong daily resistance, shorting zone):
P3: 94,000 (near the previous high of 94,554.9 on the daily chart, structural strong resistance)
P2: 92,000 (below the daily MA21 at 92,766.7, a key psychological level)
P1: 90,450 (clear upper boundary on the 4-hour range, precise level 90,450.7)
Support levels below (lower boundary of the range and daily support, long zone):
S1: 86,200 (clear lower boundary on the 4-hour range, precise level 86,244.8)
S2: 85,200 (previous low area at 85,220.2, extreme support)
S3: 84,400 (breaking below would destroy the rectangle consolidation structure, trend turns bearish)

Core Trading Logic:
The market is currently in a confirmed multi-timeframe rectangle consolidation.
• From a higher timeframe perspective, the price remains below the key psychological level of 100,000 USD. The structure is still a large rebound correction dominated by a bearish trend, but the price is above the long-term upward trendline, which can be viewed as a deep retracement and bottoming phase within a long-term uptrend.
• From a shorter timeframe perspective, the price has already risen above MA5 and MA13 but is strongly resisted by MA21. The structure is defined as a low-level consolidation and initial rebound after a downtrend, with momentum recovering but no clear unilateral trend yet (key point). Currently, it is a standard rectangle consolidation pattern with relatively high medium-term volatility.
• The current price is in the upper middle of the range, fluctuating within a small zone with no clear direction, but market volatility is contracting, indicating a typical end of consolidation and pre-breakout buildup phase. Chasing the market at this cycle is a trap; caution is advised.
• The high-probability strategy at this point is: buy long when touching the lower boundary, short when touching the upper boundary. Abandon all guesses at intermediate levels. This embodies the principle of “position over direction” at its extreme.

Probabilistic Trading Discipline:
Execute no more than 3 preset trades per day (e.g., 2 range trades + 1 breakout trade), then immediately stop all trading.
If daily cumulative loss reaches 10% of capital, forcibly shut down and rest.
Profit-taking and stop-loss distances can be set at 1:1 for beginners (generally around 700 points up or down), experienced traders should manually reduce positions by 50%-75% and move stop-loss to break-even before holding the position.

Final Advice for Probabilistic Traders:
Currently, this is a typical “high-certainty oscillation market.” Trading at the range boundaries benefits from the “physical inertia” of the price at clear boundaries, unrelated to analysis ability. The core of the system is: acknowledge cognitive limitations, abandon cleverness. Use the natural barriers of supply and demand (range boundaries) with fixed risk setups, and let market inertia pay the reward at a consistent 1:1 risk-reward ratio. By consistently executing this simple, repetitive system over the long term, you will achieve stable profits.

This analysis is based on publicly available market information and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; please be aware of market risks. Readers should conduct rational analysis, make cautious decisions, and bear the risks themselves.