The cryptocurrency market appears calm on the surface, but undercurrents are surging. In January, Bitcoin may reverse its trend.

According to HaShiChain news, the crypto market has been inactive during the New Year, but derivatives positions show different signals. Volatility is contracting, funding rates are gradually rising, and leverage remains high, despite continuous declines in trading volume and participation. ETF capital flows, stablecoin trading activity, and futures positions are no longer aligned, leading to a calm surface but underlying turbulence. The options market is adjusting, which often indicates a change in market structure rather than a continuation of the trend. Meanwhile, technical indicators are approaching critical levels, and any minor fluctuation could trigger larger asset reallocation adjustments.

Cryptocurrency trading volume has decreased by 30% compared to usual. As orderly liquidation of futures contracts continues, funding rates have slightly increased. The downtrend of Bitcoin persists but may turn bullish in January. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 43%, indicating a bullish signal, while the stochastic indicator is at 30%, indicating a bearish signal. Bitcoin is 4.5% away from triggering a trend change; the current trend is bearish. The key short-term support/resistance levels are $88,421 for bullish/bearish signals, and the main bullish/bearish level is $98,759. Ethereum may also experience a bullish trend change in January. Ethereum’s RSI is at 44%, showing a bullish signal, while the stochastic indicator is at 23%, showing a bearish signal. Ethereum is 5% away from triggering a trend change; the current trend is bearish. The key short-term support/resistance levels are $2,991 for bullish/bearish signals, and the main bullish/bearish level is $3,363. The actual volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has begun to decline significantly: Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility is at 38.2%, below its 30-day average of 45%, a decrease of 7%. Ethereum’s 30-day realized volatility is at 61.2%, lower than its 30-day average of 66.6%, down 5 percentage points.

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