The end-of-year crypto market is quite interesting. On the surface, various positive news keep coming out, and the K-line is trending upward, but if you look closely, you'll notice a strange feeling—like a lively place where half the people are looking for an exit, and the other half are just pretending to be lively.

ETH's surge today has also pulled back, which is the best reflection of this phenomenon. Don't be fooled by that wave of rise; the underlying logic might be completely different from what you think.

**The Truth About Capital Flows**

Every year around this time, the crypto market enters a special phase. Institutions and seasoned players start to lock in profits—securing gains made during the year and leaving room for uncertainty. As a result, new capital inflow into the market becomes severely limited, and only the remaining on-site funds compete with each other.

The recent ETH rally? Basically, it's these existing funds "hype" themselves. Some funds push up the price to attract retail investors to chase higher, then, when popularity peaks, they turn around and sell their holdings to these bagholders, completing a high-level exit. This routine is not just a market cycle; it’s a tried-and-true tactic in any market.

**What Are the Main Players Doing?**

Some might ask: Are the main players accumulating power and deliberately shaking out weak hands? Honestly, that's unlikely. The core of accumulation and shakeout is "retaining chips," not "selling off chips." True main players, when accumulating, will use their own funds to support the price during dips, stabilizing it so it doesn't fall too deep, while also clearing out retail investors who lack conviction.

But today's situation is different. When the price drops, selling pressure increases, and there's no sign of strong support. This indicates that the main players are not only not supporting but are also selling off. From a technical perspective, ETH is currently at the upper boundary of a range, which already has a large amount of trapped positions—main players would never choose to accumulate at such a position.

**Simple and Straightforward Advice**

During this end-of-year period, don't be fooled by short-term fluctuations. The rebound during capital reflow periods is often illusory, and the risk of chasing highs clearly increases.