When will Bitcoin break 100K? A history of surges and a practical guide for traders

Bitcoin has come a long way in 15 years—from an anonymous idea to a trillion-dollar asset. And every time the crypto market enters a boom phase, the same story repeats: FOMO, liquidations, corrections. But this time, something has changed. Let’s understand why 2024-25 are not just another cycle, but a qualitative shift in the perception of Bitcoin.

Why did ETFs change the game?

As of November 2024, Bitcoin is trading at $93,000 — a +132% increase since the beginning of the year. But the main thing isn’t the price, it’s who is buying.

In just 11 months, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $28 billion, surpassing all accumulated investments in gold ETFs throughout their history. BlackRock’s IBIT holds over 467,000 BTC. MicroStrategy adds thousands of coins. Countries like Bhutan have accumulated 13,000 BTC.

This isn’t trading — it’s positioning.

When the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, what traders had waited ten years for happened: Bitcoin became a financial instrument, not just a speculative asset. Pension funds, insurance companies, asset managers — all can now buy Bitcoin through familiar channels without direct custody and custody headaches.

Current BTC price: $88.61K (-0.12% per hour, but +1.88% per month)

All-time high: $126.08K. The question isn’t whether Bitcoin will reach $100K, but when.

Four boom cycles that laid the foundation

2013: $145 → $1,200 (+730%)

The first major jump was driven by retail investors scared by the financial instability in Cyprus. Media shouted about the crypto revolution. Enthusiasts created new projects. But then Mt. Gox crashed — the hack of the largest exchange at the time wiped out -75% of the market in one year.

Lesson: Infrastructure was weak. Trust was fragile.

2017: $1,000 → $20,000 (+1,900%)

The second cycle was the era of ICOs. New projects raised money from ordinary investors through token sales. User-friendly exchanges appeared. Bitcoin became a topic of lunch and social media discussions. Daily trading volumes surged from $200 million to $15 billion.

But then China banned ICOs and domestic crypto exchanges. The market collapsed by -84% in a year.

Lesson: Retail speculation fuels booms but creates bubbles.

2020-2021: $8,000 → $64,000 (+700%)

Pandemic, money printing, negative interest rates. Bitcoin was positioned for the first time not as a speculation but as “digital gold” — a hedge against inflation. Tesla and MicroStrategy bought billions of dollars. Bitcoin futures opened to institutions.

By 2021, public companies held over 125,000 BTC. That was serious money.

Lesson: When big capital arrives, rallies become more sustainable.

2024-25: $40,000 → $93,000 (+132%, and this isn’t even the peak)

The current cycle is a convergence of all previous factors:

• ✅ ETF approval (regulatory recognition)
• ✅ Fourth halving in April 2024 (reducing supply)
• ✅ Institutional demand ($28 billion in ETFs in 11 months)
• ✅ Geopolitical factor (potential pro-Russian policies of Trump regarding crypto)

Volatility still exists (24h max: $89.57K, min: $86.89K), but the main trend is clear: buyers are prevailing.

How to recognize the next Bitcoin rally?

Professionals look for three types of signals:

1. Technical indicators

• RSI > 70 = strong buying impulse (currently around 65-70)
• Price above 200-day moving average = bullish trend persists
• MACD positive and rising = momentum is strengthening

All three signals are currently active.

2. On-chain data (on-chain)

• Influx of stablecoins onto exchanges = fresh money ready to buy
• Decrease in BTC reserves on exchanges = accumulation, not selling
• Wallet activity increasing = retail investors have returned

In 2024, all three indicators are green.

3. Macro factors

• Regulation approval (exists ✅)
• Halving events every 4 years ✅(
• Inflow of new capital )ETFs, corporations ✅(
• Support from governments )Bhutan, El Salvador, potentially the US ✅(

Five events that could send Bitcoin higher )

$100K

1. BITCOIN Act — turning Bitcoin into a strategic reserve

Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed a law requiring the US to accumulate up to 1 million BTC over five years. If passed, demand from all other countries could double.

Why? Because when America says “this is good,” the whole world nods.

2. OP_CAT and Layer-2 solutions

Bitcoin was created for one thing: transferring value. But if OP_CAT ###closed code( is restored, Bitcoin could process thousands of transactions per second.

This would open the way for DeFi on Bitcoin — direct competition to Ethereum. Use cases would multiply immediately, along with the price.

) 3. Governments as holders

Bhutan already holds 13,000 BTC. El Salvador — 5,875 BTC. If Norway, Switzerland, or other countries follow suit, it could add at least ###billion in demand.

$100 4. Next halving cycles

Halvings happen every 4 years. Historically:

• After 2012 halving: +5,200%
• After 2016 halving: +315%
• After 2020 halving: +230%

Next in 2028. By then, Bitcoin could be in a completely different price range.

5. Altcoin competition as a catalyst

As Bitcoin’s price rises, competition from Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and other projects could divert capital. But this also means the crypto market as a whole is growing, and Bitcoin as the flagship is the main beneficiary.

Practical checklist before the next rally

If you’ve been waiting for a wave, here’s what to do right now:

Step 1: Education ###2-3 hours(

• [ ] Read the Bitcoin technical guide )not everything, just the beginning(
• [ ] Understand what halving is and why it’s important
• [ ] Study charts of 2013, 2017, 2021 cycles
• [ ] Identify common patterns )they exist(

) Step 2: Choose your tool

• [ ] If conservative: spot Bitcoin ETF ###simple, taxable, safe(
• [ ] If aggressive: exchange with good liquidity )watch for security: 2FA, withdrawal whitelist(
• [ ] If long-term: hardware wallet for storage )Ledger, Trezor(

) Step 3: Prepare capital

• [ ] Not all at once. Max 5-10% of your portfolio if conservative, 20-30% if risk-tolerant
• [ ] Split into several tranches ###buy gradually, not all at once(
• [ ] Understand what you can afford to lose without panic

) Step 4: Watch for triggers

• [ ] ETF news ###inflows(
• [ ] Regulatory announcements )US, EU, Asia(
• [ ] Corporate purchases )MicroStrategy, Tesla, Amazon?(
• [ ] News about national reserves

) Step 5: Set orders

• [ ] Stop-loss at -15% ###to protect against panic(
• [ ] Take-profit at +50-100% )don’t be greedy(
• [ ] Ladder entries )don’t catch the bottom, enter gradually(

) Step 6: Ignore the noise

• [ ] FOMO on Twitter doesn’t exist
• [ ] Advice from a random person is worth exactly what their hands are worth
• [ ] Emotional decisions are enemies of profit
• [ ] Stick to your plan

Volatility as a feature, not a bug

Yes, Bitcoin can drop 20% in a day. But that’s not a system error — it’s its essence. When retail investors trigger FOMO and take positions on margin, then news hits — stop-losses are triggered, prices fall, liquidations happen.

Current 24-hour range: $86.89K – $89.57K

For a long-term investor, it’s just noise. For a trader, it’s an opportunity to average in.

What could prevent Bitcoin from soaring?

1. Macroeconomic crisis — if deflation starts, investors will move to cash
2. Regulatory shock — ban ###unlikely, but who knows(
3. Technical failure — code error )extremely unlikely(
4. CBDC competition — if states launch their digital currencies with full control, it could divert capital
5. Environmental restrictions — mining ban )possible in the EU(

But currently, none of these factors dominate.

Historical Bitcoin market cap: the trend is clear

• 2013: $1.5 billion
• 2017: )billion
• 2021: $1.0 trillion
• 2024: $1.77 trillion

Exponential growth is slowing $600 which is logical(, but it’s not stopping. This means there will be rallies ahead, but they will be less volatile and more structured.

When will the next 10x or even 100x happen?

Realistic scenarios:

Most likely scenario: Bitcoin will reach $120-150K by the end of 2025, then retrace 20-30%, and continue rising to $250K+ by 2026-2027.

Final verdict: are you ready?

Every Bitcoin cycle teaches one thing: max profits go to those who prepare in advance, not those who jump on the train when it’s already speeding.

2013 showed that even mega drops $35K -75%( recover. 2017 showed that retail speculation creates bubbles, but Bitcoin survives. 2020-2021 proved that big money changes the rules. 2024-2025 show that Bitcoin is now part of the financial system.

The question is no longer whether there will be a rally. It’s at what level you will get on the train.

Follow: ETF flows, regulation news, corporate announcements, blockchain data. Prepare capital. Plan your entries. Ignore FOMO. Profits will come.

Bitcoin will not die. That’s a fact. The only question is when you will start earning from it.