#美联储回购协议计划 Beware! Bitcoin large options expiration night is approaching, and triple-long positions are gearing up.
Latest data reveals an intriguing situation — open interest in call options is actually 2.5 times that of put options, with the key level locked at $94,000.
In other words, if Bitcoin's closing price is near this level, most options will expire worthless, and the market impact will be limited. But there is a critical turning point:
**The danger of a price breakout is here** — once BTC quickly breaks above $94,000, market makers may be forced to buy spot or futures to hedge against liquidation risks, and this passive buying could trigger a short-term rally. Conversely, the opposite scenario also holds: if the price remains below this pain point, a large number of call options will expire worthless, and market sentiment could be suppressed by invisible hands.
Based on tonight’s position distribution, the probability of an abnormal move is quite high. But how fierce the volatility can get and how long it can last depends on the actual support from the spot market and how large institutions hedge their positions.
**A straightforward advice for retail traders**: tonight is more about observation than aggressive trading. The short-term risk is indeed very intense. If you are a long-term holder, you can see this wave as short-term noise. Stick to your strategy and don’t be scared out of your positions.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
7 Likes
Reward
7
6
Repost
Share
Comment
0/400
SleepyValidator
· 2h ago
The 94,000 price level really can't hold anymore. It feels like tonight it's either skyrocket or collapse; there's no third option in between.
View OriginalReply0
WalletDetective
· 7h ago
The price of 94,000 is indeed a bit tight, and I'm afraid I will see blood tonight
View OriginalReply0
EternalMiner
· 7h ago
The 94,000 level has already been overhyped. To be honest, it's the same old story—institutions can move as they please.
View OriginalReply0
CryptoNomics
· 7h ago
honestly the pain point analysis here completely ignores the endogenous variables affecting mm behavior. if you actually ran a regression on historical gamma exposure during fed intervention windows, you'd see this 2.5x ratio means practically nothing without controlling for realized volatility correlation. but sure, let's pretend 94k is some magical number...
Reply0
governance_ghost
· 7h ago
The 94,000 level is indeed quite aggressive, with so many bullish orders stacking up... I'm afraid we might get swept up tonight.
View OriginalReply0
HashRateHustler
· 7h ago
The 94,000 level is really starting to be hard to hold. With so many bullish orders, market makers must be feeling quite uncomfortable.
#美联储回购协议计划 Beware! Bitcoin large options expiration night is approaching, and triple-long positions are gearing up.
Latest data reveals an intriguing situation — open interest in call options is actually 2.5 times that of put options, with the key level locked at $94,000.
In other words, if Bitcoin's closing price is near this level, most options will expire worthless, and the market impact will be limited. But there is a critical turning point:
**The danger of a price breakout is here** — once BTC quickly breaks above $94,000, market makers may be forced to buy spot or futures to hedge against liquidation risks, and this passive buying could trigger a short-term rally. Conversely, the opposite scenario also holds: if the price remains below this pain point, a large number of call options will expire worthless, and market sentiment could be suppressed by invisible hands.
Based on tonight’s position distribution, the probability of an abnormal move is quite high. But how fierce the volatility can get and how long it can last depends on the actual support from the spot market and how large institutions hedge their positions.
**A straightforward advice for retail traders**: tonight is more about observation than aggressive trading. The short-term risk is indeed very intense. If you are a long-term holder, you can see this wave as short-term noise. Stick to your strategy and don’t be scared out of your positions.