How Record-Breaking Options Expiry Affects Bitcoin?

Today’s Bitcoin options with a notional value of approximately $23.6 billion are the largest in history. The core impact lies in dominating market volatility in the short term through **market makers' hedging activities**.

**Before expiry (price suppression)**: To manage risk, market makers buy and sell spot assets before expiry to maintain “Delta neutrality,” often causing prices to be “pinned” near key levels such as the maximum pain point (around $96,000), resulting in range-bound oscillations. Recently, Bitcoin’s price has been suppressed between $85,000 and $90,000, which reflects this behavior.
**After expiry (volatility release)**: As options expire, market makers’ hedging positions are unwound, weakening the temporary support and resistance created by the options structure. The market may enter a “fundamental vacuum period,” which can **amplify short-term volatility** and lead to rapid one-sided moves.

### Operational Strategy Reference
Based on the above mechanism, trading can be divided into two phases:

**1. Before expiry (until 16:00 UTC+8 today)**

**Main idea**: View the market as range-bound, buying low and selling high.
**Key levels**: Focus on **$87,000** (recent strong support) and **$89,700–$90,500** (strong resistance zone). Prices may oscillate within this range until a breakout occurs.
**Note**: The risk of chasing rallies or selling dips is higher at this stage; beware of “false breakouts” caused by market makers’ hedging activities.

**2. After expiry (volatility may increase)**

* **Observation direction**: Watch for price breakouts above or below the above range. A volume breakout above $90,500 resistance could open upward space. Analysts suggest that if the price retraces to the previous low area of **$80,000–$82,000**, there may be short-term rebound opportunities.
* **Risk management**: Volatility could rise significantly. Consider reducing leverage and watch for “bullish divergence” signals on smaller timeframes (i.e., price declines but capital outflows slow down), which may indicate a short-term rebound.

**Important reminder**: The above analysis is based on public information and historical patterns and does not constitute investment advice. Market sentiment (currently bullish with a put/call ratio of 0.37) and weak liquidity during holidays can amplify volatility risks. Please make decisions in accordance with your own risk tolerance. $BTC #BTC行情分析