#美联储降息 The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, signaling only one more rate cut next year, while also restarting T-bills purchases to supplement liquidity — the policy stance has indeed shifted, but market reactions tell us a different story.

From on-chain data, institutional activity is evident. Since December 1, smart wallets holding 10-10,000 BTC have accumulated approximately 42,000 BTC. This continuous inflow of funds is real. However, retail investors have been reducing their holdings, which has been suppressing the upward momentum — this struggle is ongoing.

The key issue lies in the time window. As the end of December and year-end settlement approach, this period has traditionally been the most illiquid phase in the crypto market. Options data show that over 50% of positions are concentrated at the end of December, with BTC’s maximum pain point locked at the 100,000 mark. The implied volatility (IV) for major maturities has been decreasing throughout the month — market expectations for volatility this month are gradually diminishing.

The rate cut benefits do exist, but they are not enough to break through the liquidity bottleneck at year-end. A slow decline remains the mainstream view in the options market. Christmas rally? Currently, the probability is relatively low. However, it’s important to note that if any sudden positive news emerges, a reversal remains possible.

The key still depends on how January unfolds.