On Christmas Day, Bitcoin repeatedly tested the $90,000 level, and the bulls and bears seemed to be caught in a strange equilibrium. The underlying reason is actually quite simple: tomorrow marks the largest options expiration in cryptocurrency history.

According to data from derivatives platforms like Deribit, this round of options settlement involves a notional value of $24 billion — enough to influence short-term market movements. The issue is that a large concentration of call options is clustered around the $100,000 mark, creating a subtle market psychology.

Why has Bitcoin been unable to break through this level? It is closely related to market makers' risk hedging operations. When the price approaches $100,000, liquidity providers selling these options need to manage their exposure through dynamic hedging. Their strategies often include selling spot to push the price down, thereby locking in profits. This kind of operation is common in derivatives markets, but its suppressive effect on the spot price is particularly significant.

Interestingly, once the options pressure releases tomorrow, this "tightening" will be completely lifted. According to the latest report from research firm Sentora Research, after this settlement event, Bitcoin is expected to enter a new upward cycle in 2026, targeting $150,000. The logic behind this is not complicated: after options expiration, the hedging demand from market makers disappears, and the market will return to normal supply and demand. Coupled with ongoing macroeconomic changes and on-chain capital flows, the conditions for a breakout will gradually mature.