2025-12-26 10:23:54

Market Recap

The compliance platform shows signs of negative premium and ETF funds continuously flowing out, which are indeed not very optimistic signals. Many people see this and immediately turn bearish, thinking the price will continue to decline. What are your thoughts?

Yesterday, a leading exchange executed a single trade of 150 million dollars (over 10 billion RMB in volume), and BTC subsequently surged above $89,000. Interestingly, on a certain derivatives platform, two short positions of $15 million each were liquidated simultaneously—truth or falsehood, hard to tell, the market is so theatrical.

The subsequent rhythm is likely to be: continue to bottom out—rebound—then fall again. When a big rebound arrives, many ask if they can get on board, but shortly after entering, the price drops again. How many times has this pattern been played?

Whales' manipulation techniques are indeed tough. They can create a bottom so deep that you think a 30% drop is almost over, a rebound is imminent, only for the bear market to continue. This is top-tier skill.

The deeper logic is the cycle transition. The previous cycle was dominated by old whales and market makers, but now the chips are gradually shifting into the hands of large traditional financial institutions. BlackRock, Vanguard, Bank of America—these new players have costs around $90,000 (MicroStrategy's cost is $74,000), and they will work together to push BTC toward $300,000. However, next year’s situation looks grim—after all, the weekly ascending channel of the Ant has been rising for three years, and the closing time is just around the corner.

Operational suggestions: During major dips, gradually accumulate BTC spot; during rebounds, reduce positions gradually; focus on holding BTC. The market’s most panic moments are often the best windows. On derivatives, consider high-leverage short positions at high levels to control risk.

Disclaimer: The above is for analytical reference only. Investment decisions are your own responsibility, and risks are to be borne by yourself. Independent thinking is the most important.

BTC0,09%

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rugpull_survivor

· 3h ago

It's the same old trick of bottom-fishing, rebound, and then falling again. I'm really tired of it. --- BlackRock and others pushing from 90,000 to 300,000? I don't believe it. First, clear the current bottom before hyping this. --- When a big rebound comes, a bunch of people jump back in, then start crying and complaining, cycle repeats. --- Negative premium and ETF outflows are indeed ugly, but what's even uglier are those forced liquidations of short positions. Market sentiment has long collapsed. --- Dipping in batches sounds simple, but when it comes to actually doing it, everyone goes all-in, and it's too late to regret. --- I've heard the weekly "Ant Channel closed" theory many times. Every time, it suggests that next year's situation won't be optimistic. And then? --- Using low leverage for shorting to control risk? That's when you haven't faced extreme market conditions and experienced crazy price swings, instant kills. --- The most panic-stricken moments are the best windows, but 99% of people are too scared to move by then.

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NotAFinancialAdvice

· 12-26 10:53

Wait, is the ETF still flowing out? That doesn't seem right, shouldn't institutions be buying the dip? Another round of bottoming market. I bet it will drop another wave before rebounding, even if I bet 5 bucks. Is the 150 million order real? This market is just ridiculous. The market maker's manipulation tactics have been played for so many years, and people still fall for it. Laugh out loud. 300,000 sounds good, but I don't know when it will arrive... Next year is really hard to predict.

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CoconutWaterBoy

· 12-26 10:52

Bottoming out and rebounding before falling again, this routine is really annoying, someone always wakes up too late each time. It's that 150 million volume spike again, very fake and real at the same time. The manipulative tactics of the big players are truly top-notch. BlackRock and others bought in at 90,000, while we are still debating whether to bottom fish. It's hilarious. When the rebound happens, a bunch of retail investors rush in, then they get cut again, cycle repeats. Ant's channel has been rising for 3 years, breaking the support level is just a matter of time. Next year is indeed uncertain. Dipping in gradually sounds simple, but executing it is the hardest mentally. Who dares to buy heavily when prices drop sharply? On the derivatives side, two overnight liquidations of 15 million each—what game are the big players playing? Negative premium combined with ETF outflows—this signal really can't be sustained anymore. No matter how good the words, they can't change the market's rhythm. It still depends on whether we can hold the bottom.

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AirDropMissed

· 12-26 10:40

It's the same old trick of bottoming out, bouncing back, and falling again. How many times have we been fooled by this? The manipulators' tactics are indeed ruthless. Creating such a deep bottom makes it easy to be deceived. However, the target of 300,000 USD still sounds a bit uncertain.

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GmGnSleeper

· 12-26 10:26

It's the same old story again: bottoming out, rebounding, then falling again. Players are repeatedly being harvested like this.

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