Bitcoin large-option expirations often serve as triggers for accelerated market movements. The $23.6 billion BTC options expiration on December 26, 2025, may cause short-term fluctuations between $85,000 and $90,000, with the key to the trend being whether it can break through the $90,000-$94,000 threshold.

Why does expiration make the market so "volatile"? The core reason is that several mechanisms are acting simultaneously.

Market makers' hedging positions are suddenly closed out, which directly impacts liquidity. You may see sharp rises and falls in a short period, even intraday flash crashes followed by quick rebounds—these strange movements. There's also the concept of the "maximum pain point"—most options will expire worthless at a certain price level, which this time is around $96,000. After expiration, prices tend to be pulled toward this point, but they can also quickly revert, depending on market sentiment.

The settlement method is also crucial. Cash settlement has little impact on spot prices, but if a large number of call options are exercised, it can create short-term upward pressure; conversely, put option exercises can exert downward pressure. Volatility is often suppressed tightly before expiration, but once the event is over and uncertainty is lifted, capital flows back in, and volatility will significantly increase.

Historically, after large quarterly expirations, markets tend to first fluctuate and then revert to the trend. In a bull market, the pattern is usually "consolidation followed by upward movement," while in a bear market, the opposite applies. Currently, we are in a bull market environment, so this reference still holds some significance.

Regarding this specific expiration: in the short term (1-3 days), expect oscillations between $85,000 and $90,000, with liquidity shortages possibly intensifying abnormal movements. Medium term (1-2 weeks), observe whether the resistance at $90,000-$94,000 can be broken—breaking through could lead to further upward exploration toward $95,000-$100,000; if it falls below the $86,500 support, caution is warranted for a decline toward the $85,000-$83,000 zone.

Key indicators to watch are the bull-bear ratio (changes in the Put-Call Ratio), abnormal ETF capital flows, and macro interest rate expectations. These often reflect the market's true intentions in advance.

From a trading perspective, short-term advice is to control positions and avoid chasing highs or selling lows. Focus on the support at $86,500 and resistance at $90,000—breakout direction will determine the subsequent pace. In the medium term, it’s still essential to base judgments on the fundamentals of spot prices; derivatives are only for hedging risks—avoid high leverage. Events like expirations tend to amplify emotional reactions, but ultimately, supply and demand fundamentals decide the market direction.