#美联储货币政策 The market reaction to the Fed's rate cut this time is worth paying attention to. The 25bp rate cut is in line with expectations, but the key lies in the forward guidance—only planning to cut once next year, which directly dampens market optimism.

From on-chain data, institutional movements remain relatively steady. Since December 1, smart wallets holding 10-10,000 BTC have accumulated a net increase of about 42,565 BTC, indicating that large funds are still quietly positioning. However, this resilience is offset by retail investors' continued reduction, and supply pressure still exists.

The issue lies in the uncertainty of the macro environment—while the Fed raises growth expectations and lowers inflation expectations, it also raises the threshold for subsequent easing. This "hawkish-dovish mixed" signal injects new variables into risk assets, insufficient to trigger a traditional Christmas rally.

From the options market perspective, positions exceeding 50% at the end of December, with BTC's biggest pain point at the 100,000 mark, and implied volatility trending downward throughout the month, market expectations for volatility are shrinking. End-of-year liquidity drying up combined with settlement pressures suggest a slow decline remains the mainstream expectation.

Bottom line: Continue to monitor whale wallets and capital flow changes. Until macro uncertainties subside, this phase is more suitable for observation rather than aggressive operations.