#数字资产市场动态 280 Billion USD Options Settlement Comes to Fruition, Yet the Market Doesn't Experience the Expected Surge—What Is Hidden Behind This?

Today marks the successful conclusion of the largest crypto options settlement in history. Over $280 billion in positions have been closed, with the Put/Call ratios for $BTC and $ETH at 0.35 and 0.45 respectively, indicating an overwhelmingly bullish sentiment. The maximum pain point is set at 95,000, seemingly suggesting room for an upward breakout.

However, there is an interesting contrast: bullish options are piled up, yet the market did not jump after settlement. This is not a contradiction; rather, it reveals a fact—the strategies of sellers and institutions have already taken effect. They used "selling options" tactics to steadily collect premiums in Q4, when market sentiment was low, and this money was secured long ago.

The key signals are in block trades. The trading peak before settlement was actually institutions "rebalancing"—shifting risk positions forward, especially towards March next year’s quarterly options. Currently, over 30% of the positions are concentrated in Q1 of next year, almost all of which are out-of-the-money call options. In plain terms, big funds are betting on a rally in Q1.

The truth is simple: institutions do not care about the volatility during the two days of settlement. Their strategic layout was set months in advance, extending to March next year. Today’s market calm is because the main "selling pressure" and "risk hedging" were completed through block trades before settlement. Retail investors see only a seemingly optimistic but actually wavering outlook.

What should we pay attention to next? The extremely low Put/Call ratio and the high concentration of out-of-the-money call options indeed indicate a high level of market greed, but this also means risks are accumulating. The real test window is in Q1 next year—if $BTC cannot reach 95,000 or even break through this pain point, those massive call options will turn into "detonators" for a decline, triggering a reflexive sell-off.

Currently, the market continues to oscillate amid high uncertainty. Without a clear trend, the stability of "seller strategies" may outweigh blindly going long. Market money always moves faster than news; on-chain dynamics often hide the true strategic layout of major institutions. Stay calm, observe carefully, and wait for clear signals—this is the correct approach at this stage.