Today, the crypto world witnessed an unprecedented delivery event. Over $28 billion worth of options contracts expired simultaneously, effectively shedding a heavy burden from the market.

Numbers speak: there are 267,000 Bitcoin options expiring, and even more astonishingly, 1.28 million Ethereum options. But what’s most interesting here is the scarcity of put options—Bitcoin’s Put/Call ratio is only 0.35, which is alarmingly low. In other words, most investors haven't been thinking about hedging; instead, they are wildly betting on prices soaring.

The most attention-grabbing signal comes from the March-expiring quarterly options. The volume of these contracts suddenly surged to over 30% of the total, and notably, most of them are out-of-the-money call options—strike prices far above the current market price. Essentially, a large number of traders are betting that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 in the first quarter. This aggressive positioning contrasts sharply with the lethargy of the past three months, which was arguably the most difficult period in recent years.

From a technical perspective, the spot market was previously stuck due to liquidity drought, with Bitcoin struggling between $86,000 and $89,000, as if the price was frozen. After the delivery, the hedging pressure on market makers was alleviated, and volatility is now building up, ready to explode at any moment.

But here’s a reality check. The accumulation of out-of-the-money call options indicates that market sentiment is already very heated. If the market doesn’t perform as expected, these contracts could all become worthless, posing a risk of collective invalidation, which would benefit the option sellers in the end.

The key point now is whether Bitcoin can hold the $86,000 support level. Holding this line makes a $100,000 breakthrough possible; breaking below it, however, would turn these out-of-the-money contracts into cannon fodder, and the market could test lower levels again. Market risks and opportunities coexist, and cautious decision-making remains the best strategy.