Matrixport: Bitcoin's downside risk marginally eases, and the market may shift to a "downside limited" game phase

Crypto界消息，Matrixport releases weekly report. The report points out that Bitcoin has been declining since mid-October, and market sentiment is becoming more cautious. As the market re-mentions the “four-year cycle,” many traders speculate that 2026 may still be in a pressure phase. In recent months, Bitcoin has remained under pressure in an environment of converging volatility, deleveraging, and lack of risk appetite, but from derivatives, ETFs, and key technical indicators, the position structure has begun to change. The report shows that historically, the market tends to be more conservative at the end of the year, but after entering the new year, as funds are reallocated and risk budgets are restored, the speed of sentiment reversal can sometimes exceed expectations. The current technical structure indicates that downside momentum is marginally slowing, but there is no clear consensus on the upside. Against this backdrop, the market may shift from a “bearish risk dominance” to a game stage of “limited downside, with upside still needing catalysts.” Additionally, as the largest Bitcoin options expiration in history approaches, the strike price distribution is becoming an important window to observe market pressure and potential opportunities.